Toronto's bats remain ice cold, but Dylan Cease's dominance makes the Under, strikeout props and Jays moneyline worth a look
The noose is getting tighter around the Toronto Blue Jays, dropping two of three to the Chicago White Sox over the weekend at Rogers Centre.
In yesterday’s 3-0 loss to the Sox, it was much of the same storyline, one that’s become tedious.
Four total hits. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 0-4. Two hits, five strikeouts, three hard-hit balls against Chicago starter Sean Burke. It was the bottom of the fourth inning before the Jays even got a man on base.
Just a failure to back up Trey Yesavage’s quality start. The Jays are 4-6 in their last ten games, with a .215 batting average and a 4.29 ERA.
This morning, the Jays sit four games out of an American League wild-card spot, with the Aug. 3 trade deadline looming large.
And it doesn’t get any easier from here. Tonight the Tampa Bay Rays are in town, sitting first place in the American League East, one of the surprise stories this season.
“We didn’t string offence together. We gotta turn it around in a hurry, find a way to score. Trey gave us a chance to win; he was really good. We gotta start winning. That’s just the bottom line. It doesn’t matter how you do it: 1-0 or 10-9,” said Blue Jays manager John Schneider yesterday.
Game time tonight at Rogers Centre is 7:07 p.m. EST, with the Jays 46-53 now, 25-27 at home. The Rays are 56-42, 21-27 on the road.
Tonight features a true pitching duel, with All-Star Dylan Cease taking the mound for the Jays (6-4, 2.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 149 strikeouts) against Nick Martinez (8-2, 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 62 strikeouts) for the Rays.
In MLB betting at Betway this morning, the Jays are -165 on the Moneyline, while the Rays are +135. On the Runline, the Jays are -1.5 (+125), with the Rays +1.5 (-165). The total is set at 7.5 (Over -105, Under -115).
Let’s call it: the Jays’ offence stinks right now, so that line reflects the immense respect oddsmakers have for Cease – and justifiably so. He’s a strikeout machine, a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate, and he struck out the side in the first inning of last week’s All-Star Game in Philadelphia.
That and the fact the Rays are riding a six-game road skid right now. The story in the American East is the surging Boston Red Sox, winners of 13 straight.
Martinez, while not overpowering hitters like Cease does, keeps games close and limits damage, so that 7.5-run total reflects expectations of a pitcher’s duel.
The Rays, who typically dominate the Blue Jays, are up 5-1 in their season duel.
Players to watch, other than the pitchers: Ernie Clement, 13-for-41 with a double and home run over the last ten games, and Junior Caminero on the Rays’ side, with 29 home runs, slugging .551.
That’s good value on that Under 7.5 (-115), with both starters with ERAs under 2.70, and the Jays’ offence struggling. That’s why, for me, look for Toronto to add bats at the trade deadline more than pitching. The current lineup can’t seem to generate consistent run production.
The other best bet is Cease 7+ strikeouts (-180), even 9+ strikeouts at plus money (+200), if he works into the sixth or seventh innings. Over his last two starts, Cease struck out 20 batters in 15 innings.
Plus, there’s no better opportunity to get back on the winning track than to ride your No. 1 starter. That’s why I’m also leaning Blue Jays moneyline tonight (-150). I am putting my money more on Cease than I am on the Blue Jays hitting.
