Our NFL Week 3 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections
Still licking my wounds after last night’s Atlanta Falcons’ 35-14 beatdown over the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football, since I took the Packers -4.5.
I also took the Falcons Drake London Over 68.5 receiving yards, and Bijan Robinson Over 78.5 yards, watching him destroy the Packers’ defensive line and rush for 194 yards. I also hit on Jordan Love 225+ passing yards, on a night he inexplicably went 28-for-53, for 312 yards, so it wasn’t all carnage for me on the betting front.
However, if I’m a Packers fan this morning, I’m curled up in a dark corner somewhere, rocking back and forth. They stink right now. I won’t be touching them going forward.
Now we’re onto Week 3, with a full slate of games Sunday, topped off by the L.A Rams-in-Denver game against the Broncos will kick off Sunday night, followed by a Monday night game in Chicago as the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Caleb Williams-less Bears.
Here are my NFL Week 3 picks against the spread.
NFL Week 3 Betting Landscape
Three betting storylines are shaping up as we head into Week 3: quarterback injuries, early-season overreactions (Packers?), and several teams whose first two games may be giving bettors a misleading picture of their actual quality.
Jayden Daniels, Williams and Jaxson Dart were all injured in Week 2. Daniels dislocated his elbow and will be out for a while, putting Marcus Mariotta in the spotlight as the Commanders host the Seahawks. Washington opened at +2.5 but is now +8.5 underdogs in NFL betting picks at Betway.
Same deal with Chicago. Williams, despite being taken off on a cart last week, has a Grade 1 hamstring strain and was described as week-to-week. ESPN lists him as doubtful for Monday night.
Backup Tyson Bagent entered concussion protocol. That creates uncertainty for the Eagles game, with the Bears 4.5-point underdogs at Betway.
The Chargers and Lions both have something to prove. The Chargers, opening at 0-2, have big problems, waltzing into Buffalo to take on the Bills. Betway lists the Bills as big 7.5-point favourites.
Plus, the Dolphins, 10.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs, are horrible. The Chiefs are laying double digits on the road, so this is a good Week 3 question: has the market adjusted enough to Miami’s poor start, or not enough?
Are you paying too much of a premium on the Bills -7.5 (-105)? And the Seahawks are 8.5-point favourites against Washington. That one opened at Seattle -3.5. Looks like Sam Darnold is coming back, having taken part in full practice Thursday.
NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread
L.A. Chargers vs Buffalo Bills
As I said, in NFL betting, Buffalo is -7.5. Is Buffalo becoming overpriced, or are the Chargers genuinely broken? Tons of executional errors and penalties. No updates on Ed Oliver (hip) and DJ Moore (shoulder) yet, although coach Joe Brady spoke optimistically about Moore playing Sunday. DL T.J. Sanders is out, though, after getting an appendectomy.
An ESPN model has the Bills winning by 8.2, with a 78% probability of winning the game outright.
Buffalo has scored at least 36 points in each game, with QB Josh Allen accounting for nine TDs. The Chargers are really struggling with Mike McDaniels’ system.
Take the Bills -7.5 (-105)
Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders
Again, this is an injury-driven play, plus it looks like Darnold is coming back. So, take the Seahawks -8.5 (-105).
Seattle has allowed only 17 points and 428 total yards through two games. Washington went 2-6 when Mariota started last year. Commanders’ G Sam Cosmi (concussion) and LB Frankie Luvu (groin) are questionable, missing practice yesterday.
Look, Seattle -8.5 is a big number to lay on the road, but the defending Super Bowl champs have been a strong ATS road team since the start of last season.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Too soon to tell what we have in the Steelers (1-1), hosting the Bengals (2-0). The Steelers are coming off that ugly 20-3 loss to the Patriots.
Betway has the Bengals as 3.5-point favourites (-105). I like the edge that the Bengals’ defence offers now – holding the Texans to six points last week. They haven’t allowed a passing touchdown yet this season. The Steelers have scored just two offensive TDs in two games.
Take the Bengals at that number.
Sunday NFL Week 3 Parlay Picks
I could take the construction around my three ATS picks and turn them into a parlay (+644 at Betway, $50 pays you $372.10)
As an alternate, I have my eye on Ravens -3.5 plus Rams -2.5 (+281). Dallas has a lot of injuries, going up against Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and that offence. And I really liked the Rams’ bounce-back performance in Week 2, 28-6 over the Giants. The Rams are 26-19 ATS as road favourites under Sean McVay, according to Sports Illustrated.
