Cam Schlittler’s strikeout prop and Kazuma Okamoto’s home-run odds offer intriguing value as Toronto battles through injuries
For the Toronto Blue Jays, as they dash towards an American League wild-card spot, the injury bug is relentless.
In yesterday’s 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, pulling them within .5 game of the third wild-card spot, Andres Gimenez exited in the fourth inning with hamstring tightness. Two days ago, it was Brett Bateman, exiting a game against those same Rays with hamstring tightness.
Last Friday, it was Vladimir Guerrero Jr., exiting a game against the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre after taking a knee to the head on a play at third base. Guerrero Jr. has a concussion and is trying to work his way back to the big league club.
Spencer Arrighetti, Trey Yesavage, Jameson Taillon, even George Springer, working through a shoulder issue, but remaining in the lineup – it’s been a tsunami of injuries, and it’s been that way all season.
The Blue Jays are back playing those same Yankees, with the first game of a three-game set tonight at Yankee Stadium, after taking two of three from New York last weekend.
The Jays haven’t named a starting pitcher as of 9 a.m. EST, with the Yankees going with Cy Young Award candidate Cam Schlittler (10-6, 2.19 ERA, 189 Ks, 4th in MLB and a 0.94 WHIP).
The Yankees have injuries of their own, of course – Aaron Judge remains out of the lineup with that broken rib issue, Cody Bellinger is dealing with a hamstring issue, Max Fried is out with an elbow injury.
In MLB betting at Betway, the Yankees are -225 moneyline favourites, with the Blue Jays at +185. New York is -1.5 (-110) on the runline, with Toronto +1.5 (-110). The total is 7.5, with both the Over and Under at -110.
For bettors, while it hasn’t been confirmed, the Blue Jays are going with a bullpen game and will try to piece together nine innings that way. I hate bullpen games, from a betting perspective, because who knows who they’ll throw out there and when.
If they were facing anyone other than Schlittler, it would be more challenging to make picks. Schlittler went 5.1 innings Saturday, the last time he faced the Blue Jays, a 4-1 loss, giving four hits and one run. He has a nice hate on for the Jays, after Toronto took out New York in last fall’s American League Divisional series, plus some critical comments he’s made about Toronto fans.
Schlittler will be jacked up to make a statement tonight, on home field.
But here’s where betting on the Jays gets challenging. Injuries or not, this core has last fall’s World Series run under its belt, and you can’t underestimate the impact that experience has had throughout the organization. It almost doesn’t matter who they throw out there. There’s a competitiveness, a steeliness, to this team that has been evident since the Aug. 3 trade deadline — and few teams can match it.
And that’s why I am taking Blue Jays +1.5. Maybe they don’t win, but that runline gives me the cushion I need, because they’ll keep it close.
Last weekend against the Yankees, the Jays started Braydon Fisher as an opener and then got strong work from Ricky Tiedemann, Simeon Woods Richardson, Mason Fluharty, Spencer Miles, Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland.
They shut the Yankees down with that lineup.
I am also taking a Schlittler strikeout prop – Betway has 6+ Ks at -190, 8+Ks at +220. The Jays’ offence has been their Achilles heel all season, so I am leaning the 6+. Safer. I think Schlittler gets there early, frankly.
Also, I am looking at Kazuma Okamoto’s stats over the past seven days – 6 games, 24 ABs, 4 runs, 7 hits, 2 doubles, 2 home runs. He’s at +475 to hit one tonight. The short porch in right field doesn’t help him, obviously. But he gets the ball in the air and has legitimate opposite-field power. I am going to sprinkle a little money on the Jays’ rookie.
