The horse racing broadcaster provides his tips for Thursday at Betway's Newmarket Craven Meeting, including a pick for the day's last race at Ripon.
The final day of the Betway Guineas Festival with 4 races on ITV4, the first of which is a competitive sprint handicap over 6f. Preference here is for a couple more to the bottom of the weights in Albaydaa and SOVEREIGN SPELL 13/2 (13:50 Newmarket). Albaydaa makes her handicap debut after steady progression in three runs culminating in making all in a Wolverhampton fillies maiden. She has been given what looks a very fair mark but does start out back over a furlong shorter, and with the yard still to fully hit its straps (1/16 April A/E 0.34). Then with a run already under his belt, Sovereign Spell is the preferred of the pair. That also yielded an all-the-way Wolves maiden win, but over today’s trip of 6f with the fourth horse that day coming out and winning next time. His sole run in handicaps came off this mark in a nursery at Doncaster, which both looked and has since proved solid form, and he looks capable of a big run under Rowan Scott.
The second televised race is unique in the coverage in that there are a field of unraced three-year-olds for the Wood Ditton. In the days before the All Weather, this race held rather more significance as trainers ran horses that could be genuine classic contenders, as there had been so few options since the end of the turf season the previous November. Nowadays there is the option of racing on the All Weather which allows the Notable Speech type preparation, and so it is a lower key affair and without the major jigsaw pieces of the paddock and a developed betting market it is impossible to make a selection.
The feature race for the older horses is the first Group Race sprint of the season, the Group 3 Abernant over 6f. This proved a minefield of a division last season with several big priced winners of the feature races which included Time For Sandals, winner of the Commonwealth Cup at 25-1. In fairness, that race worked out better than I expected, and he himself performed afterwards – being undone by the draw in the Sprint Cup where he had the worst of it. QUINAULT 9/1 (15:00 Newmarket) however has hit the ground running again this season finishing second under a big weight over 5f (the first time he had raced at the trip since 2023), and then showing his customary toughness in winning a Group 3 6f race in Qatar, rallying to regain the lead close to home. He has the advantage both of fitness and tempo with the chance he can get a soft lead. This looks more of a major objective for him than several others in the field, who have long seasons ahead and may progress for the run.
The 2000 Guineas trial of the meeting is the Group 3 Betway Craven over the Rowley Mile with all bar Commander’s Intent holding Classic entries. HANKELOW 9/2 (15:35 Newmarket) represents Karl Burke and won the Autumn Stakes here last October. He has quite a bit of knee action so any rain (showers are forecast on both Thursday and Friday afternoons) would be in his favour. He certainly has the physique to progress from two to three and is preferred to Oxagon who performed consistently last season in good-quality races until failing to handle the deep ground behind Hawk Mountain in the Futurity. Hawk Mountain lines up again here but do check how the Aidan O’Brien horses have fared on Thursday. As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, historically he has a very poor record with his UK challengers in April (9/102 A/E 0.42 before racing on Thursday), and if the trend continues it would be hard to be positive about his chances on the very different ground and a shortish price.
Away from the main action, if the rain does fall then make note of ON THE RIVER (17:25 Ripon) who ran well in the Spring Mile at Doncaster last month. He has fallen to a good mark and the booking of Harry Vigors takes another 5lb off. If the ground goes good to soft or deeper then he would be well worth backing.
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