The horse racing broadcaster offers five tips for Saturday’s racing at Haydock and Goodwood, while also previewing the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh.
A classic weekend in Ireland along with sprinting clues for Royal Ascot from Haydock, feature among the 10 races shown on ITV this Saturday, spread across four venues.
The Irish 2000 Guineas (15:40 Curragh) looks at the mercy of Gstaad after his second at Newmarket with a yawning eight lengths back to the rest of the field. He has the physique to continue to improve, and it requires a big leap of faith to see anything behind him at Newmarket reversing the form – that is reflected in a prohibitively short price. Distant Storm may get a little closer with his yard emerging from the doldrums, though given his keenness as a young horse the fitting of cheekpieces would not be certain to suit. He also has to travel away from Newmarket for the first time since boiling over in the Acomb at York.
From a betting perspective the most interesting runner all afternoon could be FIVE WAYS 10/1 (14:58 Haydock) in the 6f Sandy Lane at Haydock. This race was given fresh impetus when the Commonwealth Cup came into existence, and I dabbled in the ante post market on Five Ways this week for the race at the Royal meeting after what I thought was a good run on his return at Newmarket. The 5f was always likely to prove on the sharp side, and it is tough for three-year-olds to take on older sprinters at this time of year, so he acquitted himself well making decent headway (out of camera shot) throughout the final furlong. In an ideal world he could have been drawn higher on Saturday as there can be a favoured strip against the stands rail (high draw), but he looks over the odds at a double figure price. Division is a clear danger, running really well at Ascot after blowing the start and he can reverse the form with Coppull granted a better break. But Five Ways may have been underestimated and with the Commonwealth Cup very open after the disappointment of Charles Darwin this weekend, a small investment at 66-1 on Five Ways was too tempting to resist.
Half an hour later and it is the turn of the older sprinters when ASFOORA 5/1 (15:30 Haydock) can show the benefit of her seasonal debut in the Temple Stakes. She seems to always need her first-up run and her successes at the top level at York and Longchamp stamped her as champion sprinter last season. She had several of these behind her in the Abbaye and the market seems to have operated a touch on recency bias here after her Newmarket run. She clearly has bigger targets down the line, but Night Raider got given too much rope at HQ and they are unlikely to make the same mistake again, which should suit with the pace developing right in front of her.
Earlier on at Haydock I will be paying close attention as to how NOCHE CLASSICA 7/1 (13:45 Haydock) fares on her step up to Listed company. One of the most enjoyable developments for me over the last year has been getting involved in buying at the Sales with Dan Horsford and she was one we looked at this time last year. Things went too high for us that day, but she is a really impressive looking filly and what will stick in the memory is her laid back temperament, as when we went to see her she was boxed close to the sale ring with the loudspeakers in full cry yet was sound asleep! Connections have done well with her, and she can hopefully at least gain some black type for them here. With her looks and pedigree, she has proved well worth the money.
Away from Haydock GOLDEN STORY 10/3 (14:00 Goodwood) was absolutely clueless around Chester behind Constitution River in the Dee. He completely failed to handle the track and finished with a fair bit of running left. Karl Burke thinks very highly of this horse, and he can reward that faith by lowering the colours of the unbeaten Saxon Street in the Cocked Hat. He is clearly still a work in progress but has considerable raw ability which can be drawn out more fully here.
Finally, away from the ITV cameras KNOCK THREE TIMES (14:35 Goodwood) can make her experience tell in the 6f juvenile race. She is related to the enigmatic Khaadem who won the Stewards Cup over this course and distance, which strongly favours horses with experience due to the initial downhill run which can see inexperienced horses get lost early and hence never get involved. Goodwood is the third worst track in terms of Actual/Expected for two-year-old debutantes (0.84) behind Lingfield (0.79) and Windsor (0.83). She is preferred to Wondervision whose first season sire Minzaal is at the time of writing 0/20 with his runners so far.
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