The horse racing broadcaster offers up his ante-post bets for the Epsom Derby and Oaks at big each-way prices, before delving into this Saturday at Newbury and Newmarket.
Another busy week of Classic trials comes to an end and, as we draw closer to Epsom, I will start this week with a quick summary of who has impressed me most and a couple of outsiders who appeal as ante-post bets.
Epsom Ante-Post Tips
Starting with the Derby, if Constitution River turns up at Epsom then he would very much be the one I would side with. His Dee Stakes victory was both fluent and backed up by the clock. With such a multitude of riches at his disposal, Aidan O’Brien could yet send him to France, so he is one to wait for until running plans are confirmed before getting involved. However, if he lines up on the day, I will be with him. The Listed Newmarket Stakes is quite a long way removed from being a recognised Derby trial, but ANCIENT EGYPT 25/1 (Derby) really impressed. Despite his big price, he produced a resolute galloping display and looks certain to stay the Derby trip well. He has an uncomplicated run style and was well balanced through the Dip. Being Amo Racing-owned, it is hard to imagine him not turning up, and he can certainly at least make the frame.
As regards the Oaks, again the best filly may not end up there on the day, and that is Diamond Necklace. She did nothing to dissuade me from the view that she is Coolmore’s standout three-year-old filly with her smooth win in the French Guineas. Having backed her for the English version, I won’t make the same mistake of going in early again, especially as, having established her penchant for France twice now, she will probably step up in trip gradually via the Prix du Jockey Club. I do think she will stay 12f, but she may not be asked that particular question until later on in the season.
The most interesting trial again looked to take place at Chester with the Cheshire Oaks, but with Amelia Earhart seeming to walk a tightrope regarding temperament and benefitting from how the race was run, it is the third horse, A LA PROCHAINE 20/1 (Oaks), who looks a tempting play. Based on the comments of rider James Doyle, she may need some cut in the ground to line up at Epsom given her action, but if conditions come up good to soft she could take another big step forward. Chester was only her second career run, in a race where the tempo heavily favoured those ridden forward. In the haste to shorten prices for Coolmore’s flying machine and the now ruled-out I’m The One, bookmakers seemed to overlook her run slightly. Again, the price appeals, though the caveat about the ground means only a modest investment until the forecast becomes clearer. Epsom will be keen to start the meeting on at least good ground, so even a few showers in the build-up could prove enough to provide more cushion than at Chester, where the ground all week was a fair bit faster than the official description.
Saturday Selections
On Saturday, the emphasis moves away from the Classic generation and on to the first older-horse Group 1 of the season, the 1m Lockinge. Twelve months ago, DAMYSUS 11/4 (14:35 Newbury) was being talked about as a Derby prospect but took a while to fulfil that promise. His reappearance at Newmarket in the Earl of Sefton over 9f resulted in a dominant victory and, while John Gosden initially suggested the Prix d’Ispahan in France as the target – with Field Of Gold being the Lockinge horse – this all changed when the latter bled at Sandown behind Opera Ballo, who was then also touted as going to France. Richard Brown of Wathnan had sounded far keener on the Lockinge option when quizzed, and with two Gosden horses no longer on a collision course, the path was clear for Damysus. Zeus Olympios is clearly a danger, but he looked to have few excuses bar needing the run at Sandown, and at this stage Damysus appears the more progressive.
Elsewhere at Newbury, ROYAL FIXATION 5/2 (15:10 Newbury) ran third in last year’s Cheveley Park behind subsequent 1000 Guineas winner True Love and, with Wise Approach’s stable still so quiet and Albert Einstein so far not living up to his potential, she can land the Carnarvon Stakes. Ghost Mode should set a strong pace, which will suit her hold-up run style.
Every year, the London Gold Cup throws up plenty of winners and MY LOVE IS KING 11/4 (15:45 Newbury) represents the Ancient Egypt Newmarket form mentioned above. The addition of cheekpieces is a slight worry, as it is not usually a positive for the yard (40/320, A/E 0.72), but it is still early days with him and perhaps it will help him focus. A good show here would increase confidence in Ancient Egypt.
At Newmarket, SILVER GHOST 13/2 (14:50 Newmarket) can reverse recent form with Golden Redemption, who still seems to want to do it all in one breath, while REBEL PATH 12/1 (15:27 Newmarket) is below the mark from which he won this 12 months ago under apprentice Olivia Haines, who again takes the ride and, like last year, is a double-figure price.
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