The horse racing broadcaster has four selections on the second day of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, including one in the feature race of the day.
The helter-skelter continues. Only a few weeks after the Nationals, and with Punchestown dominating this week, attention now switches firmly to the Flat, with the first Classic of the season on Saturday: the 2000 Guineas.
With the trial successes of Oxagon and Alparslan, the key line of form appears to be last season’s Dewhurst, won by the ill-fated Gewan, with Gstaad and DISTANT STORM 4/1 (15:35 Newmarket) chasing him home. Gstaad also gave the form a boost when following up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar, seemingly proving his stamina in the process. Del Mar, however, is a very tight track with the emphasis very much on tactical speed, and Gstaad’s pedigree is less convincing (a half-brother to sprinter Van Deek), so preference is for Distant Storm to reverse that Dewhurst form.
Distant Storm first rose to prominence with the €1.9m price tag he attracted at the Arqana Breeze-Ups as a two-year-old, partly because his dam was the only foal sired by 2006 Guineas winner George Washington, giving him a unique pedigree. The Newmarket maiden he won in July has turned out to be very strong form – remarkably, no fewer than four of the 12 runners are in the Guineas field. Even though he ruined his chances in the Acomb by pulling far too hard, his two subsequent runs back at HQ firmly put his career back on track. The “home game” angle could be a significant asset, as the familiar surroundings may help avoid a similar boil-over to York, and he has plenty of stamina in the pedigree to suggest a mile – or even further – is within his compass.
I have often quoted the excellent Rowley Mile record of William Buick (232/1143, A/E 1.14) and Charlie Appleby (187/670, A/E 1.21), and combined, it improves further to 141/421, A/E 1.25. At a really big price, Billecart – who was fourth to Distant Storm in that Newmarket maiden before disappointing on his return – looks overpriced, but this could be another Rowley Mile Group 1 for the Buick–Appleby combination (10/31, A/E 1.33 at the top level at the track).
However, Billecart fares, Karl Burke may already have reason to celebrate with BOTANICAL 13/2 (14:20 Newmarket) in the 9f Suffolk Stakes. He went for home more than early enough in the Lincoln on his first start for the yard, which suggested his handicap mark is very workable, and he placed off a higher mark in the John Smith’s Cup when trained by Roger Varian. Botanical has a similar profile to both Boiling Point and Liberty Lane, who won over this course and distance for the yard, and can make all from stall five.
There are few yards in better form at the moment than that of Jonathan Portman (4/11 in the last ten days), and that points to RUMSTAR 6/1 (14:55 Newmarket) completing a repeat win in the 5f Palace House Stakes. He has won three of his four runs over 5f at Group 3 level in the UK, and in a sprint division where surprises have been commonplace, that consistency stands out. He handles fast ground well and is two from two at the track, so everything looks set for a big run.
Away from Newmarket, FITZELLA 2/1 (13:30 Goodwood) looks to have been found a good opportunity to get back on the winning trail in the Listed Chelmer Stakes. She is an exuberant filly, and 7f looked to stretch her in the Nell Gwyn; back in trip, and with that run under her belt, she should settle better. She has a very likeable attitude and could prove tough to peg back.
ARISAIG (14:05 Goodwood) can make amends for a luckless run in the Conqueror Stakes a year ago. She went to the line virtually on the bridle that day, having been trapped on the rail, and showed her wellbeing with a good return under a big weight at Newmarket. She is tough and consistent, and deserves a change of fortune, having been unlucky on several occasions since her last victory, which came over course and distance in July 2024.
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