Saturday is a day of big handicaps and there are few run on the flat that are bigger than the Ayr Gold Cup.
The draw is likely to be a big factor, with a high draw proving to be a huge advantage during the last couple of years.
That could be bad news for the 7/1 favourite Don’t Touch who is drawn in stall eight. The drying ground also looks against the unbeaten 3yo so he looks one to put a line through at the prices.
It is likely that a middle draw is going to be a disadvantage whichever side is favoured in the draw and that is disappointing for Jack Dexter drawn in 13.
He was third home on the wrong side in this last year off a 2lb higher mark and the ground will be more in his favour this year too – but 12/1 is too short for a horse with serious draw question marks.
Buckstay at 12/1 is the best-fancied high-drawn horse, and, although he will enjoy the big field experience, this time last year he was running in the Cambridgeshire.
He has done well this season in dropping to 7f, but 6f is a different game entirely.
He ran over 12f earlier in his career and has never raced over sprint trips so is likely to find things happening a bit too fast.
The only one to really appeal from a high draw therefore is Tanzeel at 14/1.
He ran poorly last time out on slow ground but his only previous below-par run had come on similar underfoot conditions.
His effort last time was also his first start at 7f where he was in listed company.
Back at 6f in handicaps he holds a decent chance having won well off an 8lb lower mark in the Sprint Trophy at York two starts ago.
He has got a few miles on the clock and has looked a group horse in the making -if able to reporduce either of his first two runs of the season he looks sure to go well.
Johara looks a plot in the Silver Cup
The Ayr Silver Cup looks to have even more well-handicapped runners than the Gold Cup and once again we are probably best off concentrating on those drawn high.
Two horses stand out and those are Fast Track and Johara.
Fast Track needs to put two bad runs behind him although the ground was too slow for him on both ocassions – and he also appears to have been drawn on the wrong side.
There should not be any draw issues this time around and although the ground might not be as fast as ideal at Ayr, it should be better than for Fast Track’s last two runs.
He’s also stepping back up to his optimum trip of 6f over which he ran extremely well when badly drawn again in the Stewards Cup.
At a shorter price Johara looks guaranteed to go well.
He has had just one run this season and looks to have been campaigned with this in mind.
Last season his form figures read 1121 showing his progressive nature and on his only start this term he ran on well after meeting trouble in running to finish a close fourth behind Ecclestone.
He meets that rival on 5lb better terms here and with the benefit of that run plus the better draw (Ecclestone is in 13) he should have few problems reversing the form.
On a tough day he rates the best bet.
Tug the Top bet at Newbury
Newbury has its own big field handicap to figure out and that is the Dubai Duty Free Handicap run over 10f.
Laurence is the 6/1 favourite but most of his form is on much faster ground and the trainer’s assistant stated earlier in the season that he enjoyed the fast ground after a win on good to firm.
The ground is unlikely to be an issue for the progressive Cymro at 9/1 but most of his best form has come at Haydock and although there is no reason he shouldn’t handle Newbury the fact he’s run badly on two of his last four runs is offputting.
There appear to be much fewer doubts about Top Tug.
He will love the ground, was unlucky in running the last time he ran at this trip and he ran very well last time out over two furlongs further when ridden perhaps a bit too prominently.
The booking of Jamie Spencer in the saddle seems to indicate hold up tactics will be adopted here and at 7/1 it would be a big surprise if he could not at least make the first four which would produce a profit.
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