The horse racing broadcaster offers up his selections for every race on Day 1 of Royal Ascot.
With the weather largely set fair, the Day 1 meeting of Royal Ascot looks set to be run on ground just on the fast side. All 35 races are being shown on ITV so good luck for the week!
14:30 Queen Anne (Group 1) 1m (Straight)
Notable Speech ended a quiet spell for the stable when winning the Lockinge with a stunning turn of foot. The yard were back among the winners at the weekend and the drying ground will suit, but his two previous visits have both ended in defeat (stable 1/36 last three seasons at this meeting A/E 0/19) including when behind DOCKLANDS 7/1 (14:30 Ascot) in the race last year. By contrast Ascot has been a happy hunting ground for Harry Eustace’s horse whose form figures at the track read 11322214, with the three runs at the Royal meeting including winning the 2023 Brittania, a second in the Queen Anne in 2024 and then a win last year under today’s Aussie rider Mark Zahra. With more cut in the ground, More Thunder would have been feared more having made such good progress last season having so narrowly failed to win the Wokingham when favourite last year and he showed in the Lockinge that he is not out of place at this level.
15:05 Coventry Stakes (Group 2) 6f 2yo
The first of the two-year-old races and the one generally considered to be the best in terms of quality. That may explain why it has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien who has won the race 11 times including with Gstaad last year. The stats also suggest that this is the one juvenile race of the week where being with the yard has proved a profitable angle, as opposed to the other juvenile races. O’Brien’s 2-year-old Royal Ascot record reads 29/163 (A/E 1.02) but his record within that for the Coventry is an impressive 11/42 (A/E 1.77), which if stripped out from the total leaves 18/121 (A/E 0.81) for the rest. The message is a clear one, support Ballydoyle here but not in many other juvenile races this week. It is slightly complicated by Aidan saddling two, but the expensive and beautifully bred CONFUCIUS 9/4 (15:05 Ascot) is the choice of Ryan Moore and gets the nod. A 1.7M Guinea yearling whose dam won the Cheveley Park, Confucius was Coolmore’s first juvenile runner of the season when narrowly beaten on his debut before making short work of a Naas field in May. Like so many in this field he is priced on potential rather than improvement but the stats prove in this race it is often justified for the Ballydoyle runners, and he gets the nod over stable companion Great Barrier Reef and UK challengers Night In Vegas and Cut A Dash – both of whom have impressed with the manner of their victories.
15:40 King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) 5f.
Back to the Group 1’s with the feature 5f dash of the week, where in a very open domestic division it has paid to side with the overseas challengers, especially those from Australia. The ‘wonders from Down Under’ have lifted the race six times with an expected winner number based on exchange SP’s of 3.2 for an Actual/Expected ratio of 1.875 (so they outperform market expectations by 87.5%). The recent domestic sprint division has been littered with big priced winners, with seven of the 21 non juvenile Group 1 sprints over the last few seasons going to horses priced 25-1 or over – so they are a bunch ripe for the picking. Asfoora and OVERPASS 3/1 (15:40 Ascot) are the two Aussies in the line up this time around with preference for the latter based on some excellent runs in defeat, most notably his fourth in the Everest to the world’s best sprinter Ka Ying Rising. Asfoora may be perked up by the recent arrival of her trainer Henry Dwyer, but his first two efforts this campaign put her behind Overpass in terms of potential superiority over his UK and Irish counterparts.
16:20 St.James’s Palace Stakes Group 1 3yo 1m (Round)
A return clash between the front pair in the 2000 Guineas Bow Echo and GSTAAD 11/4 (16:20 Ascot) and where no doubt Coolmore have been plotting their tactics for revenge. The two are quite different physically, Bow Echo more lithe and athletic compared to the more physically substantial Gstaad, who may have been harder to get fully wound up for Newmarket. It was also a home game for Bow Echo as the superb post-race jubilation showed, but round a bend and with the presence of Puerto Rico in the field to no doubt assist Gstaad, this could be a trickier assignment to pull off. It is a terrific clash and very much the feature of Day 1 but again with strong Aidan O’Brien stats in the race (9/59 A.E 1.21), Gstaad already having proven himself at the meeting as one of the aforementioned stable winners of the Coventry, coupled with the bigger price he looks the percentage call from a betting perspective.
17:00 Ascot Stakes 2m 4f Handicap
The first of the handicaps and the first chance to test another of the proven Ascot stats of backing Willie Mullins horses in Royal Meeting Handicaps (7/36 A/E 1.51, and in this particular race 4/23 A/E 1.53). Like the Cesarewitch, the extreme distance lends itself to dual purpose horses but in REACHING HIGH 2/1 (17:00 Ascot) he not only has a horse that has never run under National Hunt Rules but also has the added frisson of being owned by the King and with a score to settle after a luckless run in the race last year. It is obviously of some concern that he hasn’t been seen since but that could also be so that he couldn’t blow his handicap mark as he can run of the same level as last year. There is not much that Willie Mullins hasn’t achieved in racing but a regally owned winner at Royal Ascot could well be an itch he has been scratching since twelve months ago. Joseph O’Brien saddles no less than seven in this race having had the second, third and fourth in 2025, so whilst his overall handicap record at the meeting is a very poor one (1/52 A/E 0.37) it is more a statistic for using in other races than this one.
17:35 Wolferton Stakes 10f Listed
Wathnan Racing target this week like no other in the calendar (10/68 A/E 1.59 since their first runners back in 2023). Two of those 10 victories have come via HAATEM 13/2 (17:35 Ascot) whose Royal record reads fifth in the Coventry prior to wins in the Group 3 Jersey and then this race twelve months ago. Wathnan saddle three in the race (also King’s Gambit and Map of Stars) but retained rider James Doyle sticks with Haatem and that seals the deal.
18:10 Copper Horse 1m 6f Handicap
Another staying handicap to close Day 1 and again Wathnan have a strong hand, but DAIQUIRI BAY 6/1 (18:10 Ascot) is unexposed at trip and made an excellent return to action at Newmarlet when beating another of today’s rivals in Gamrai. Of the pair he looks the more likely to benefit from the extra quarter mile having been a never nearer eighth in last year’s King George V over 1m 4f. His only previous attempt at 1m 6f saw him run third in the Melrose at a time when Alan King’s yard were struggling for form. This time, this is not the case (3/13 June A/E 1.77) and the yard have historically punched above their weight in Royal Ascot handicaps (4/46 A/E 1.46).
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