The horse racing broadcaster offers up his tips for every race on Day 4 of Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot rolls on to Day 4 with little respite in terms of the number of runners in the juvenile races and the handicaps, but a couple of the smaller fields of the week for the Coronation Stakes and the ‘Ascot Derby’ the King Edward VII.
14:30 Albany 6f two-year-old Fillies Listed
Aidan O’Brien saddles yet another favourite here in Curragh winner Sun Goddess, but she looks short enough in a race where the yard have had five of six favourites beaten down the years all of which started less than 2-1. Silent Beauty looked very impressive when winning at Yarmouth and could well live up to her £1m price tag, but DARK ISSUE 14/1 (14:30 Ascot) overcame two significant stats on debut and so could be under rated. The first was she made a winning debut at Goodwood, one of the hardest tracks in the country to do so (149/2170 A/E 0.84), and she is by Dark Angel, who whilst being an admirable sire has a very poor record with two-year-old debutantes (78/1020 A/E just 0.76). His overall juvenile record as a sire of juveniles is much better (A/E 0.94) and it shows how they progress well as they gain experience. Even a reasonable amount of progression could see Dark Issue right in at the finish.
15:05 Commonwealth Cup Group 1 three-year-old 6f
Keeping this pretty simple as VENETIAN SUN 11/8 (15:05 Ascot) looked to appreciate the return to sprinting in the Sandy Lane, and there seems no reason why any of her rivals from that race should reverse the form. That includes Division who had run so well at Ascot earlier in the season after blowing the start, and Venetian Sun’s form lines stand close inspection, most notably her defeat of Gstaad in the Prix Morny. She won the Albany of this card 12 months ago and Karl Burke has already had a winner of the race with Quiet Reflection another filly who also used the Sandy Lane as her prep race. She looks a very sold favourite.
15:40 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes 1m 4f Handicap
Joseph O’Brien is having a great week and one of his runners here, OMNI MAN 12/1 (15:40 Ascot), caught my eye earlier on the season on his return at the Curragh. He dwelt that day and was never involved but the sectional times pointed to the fact he finished with running left, and he was not given anything like a hard time. He was hardly likely to be suited by the drop back to a mile last time, but it had the desired effect of brining his mark down a handy 3lb. A creditable fifth in the King George V last year, his subsequent win at Goodwood does have him off a higher mark but this has clearly been the target and Dylan Browne McMonagle can hopefully show the same artistry from stall 4 (a little lower than ideal) that he showed on Limestone earlier in the week.
16:20 Coronation Stakes Group 1 three-year-old Fillies 1m (Round)
The current score this season between Precise and True Love stands at 1-1 with Ryan Moore on the wrong side of both of those results, but this time I think he has made the right call in riding Precise over this stiff mile. Fast ground, a strong tailwind and a steady pace all helped True Love last the trip at Newmarket whilst Precise, who had a setback in her preparation looked the stronger stayer at the Curragh. There isn’t a great deal of obvious pace again here but the climb up from Swinley Bottom makes it more of a test at the trip which favours Fillies Mile winner Precise. She is however a very short price so with the hope that the dead eight runners remain through to the off and hence there are three places, then TOULEEN (EW) 8/1 (16:20 Ascot) may represent a more interesting angle. Her run in 1000 Guineas was a good deal better than it appeared, making up 10 places late on in a steadily run race. Hopefully the stiffer test will also suit her, and she can give Precise a race.
17:00 Sandringham 1m (Str) Fillies Handicap
There are few better placers of horses than William Haggas so after a staying on fifth in the Fred Darling it was a surprise to see ZOOMING 18/1 (17:00 Ascot) backed up quickly and dropping a furlong at Goodwood just a fortnight later. Not surprisingly she made little impact, but she is a nice strong looking filly and this mile should play much more to her strengths. It is to my mind always one of the hardest races of the week, so I prefer a small investment at a decent price.
17:35 King Edward VII Stakes Group 2 1m 4f three-year-old
One of the smaller fields of the week and having been scuppered by the attritional conditions at Epsom, ANCIENT EGYPT 10/1 (17:35 Ascot), who was my Derby selection, is worth giving another chance to. Granted it remains to be seen how horses recover from a gruelling race but this small field gives him the chance to dictate and recency bias, coupled with the many believing that Epsom will leave its mark, combine to make him look over the odds. Causeway is progressive and Water to Wine unbeaten, but the latter is priced on potential rather than achievement and they take a very large share of the market between them. Ancient Egypt can boss this from the front and as a result outrun his odds.
18:10 Palace of Holyroodhouse 5f three-year-old Hcap
Not unlike the Sandringham a big field of unexposed three-year-olds, many of whom have the potential to improve significantly, makes this a fiendishly difficult end to the card. SIMPLIFY 18/1 (18:10 Ascot) just got picked off at York by Dickensian having made her move a little early off a very strong pace. That was in Listed company so a mark of 96 looks workable and whilst she is more exposed than most, she looks more likely to give her running. Jazl is very much respected but a 10lb rise for Leicester is quite a hike to overcome. This just makes me favour the filly who also has a more versatile draw in 18 to cope with any bias that may be evident come the end of the card, than Jazl who from five will be committed to being on one flank.
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