Senegal face Iraq in their final Group I match and both teams are still able to finish third, although qualification for the knockout stages looks unlikely.
Neither Senegal nor Iraq were handed any favours by the draw for the World Cup, given they have come up against two of the deadliest strikers on the planet in Kylian Mbappe of France and Norway’s Erling Haaland.
Whether it was better to play those two sides first or not is open to question, but the games have panned out the way plenty would have expected to set up something of a winner-takes-all contest in which a victory is an absolute must in order to have any semblance of hope of progressing into the knockout stages as one of the best third-place finishers.
We’ve analysed the stats and browsed the World Cup betting market for a Bet Builder for this match, which pays out at 8/1 if successful.
Senegal v Iraq Bet Builder Tips
Over 2.5 goals @ 8/15
Ismaila Sarr to score anytime @ 6/5
Ali Al Hamadi 1+ shot on target @ 10/11
Iraq to get more cards @ 4/5
Pays out at 8/1
An entertaining game in store
Given the fact that a simple three points might not be enough, the desire to win big should lead to plenty of goals, regardless of how this game ends up.
There have been nine goals in Senegal’s two games, while there has been only one less in Iraq’s, and mindful of the fact that France and Norway have scored the bulk of those, it does show that either team’s defence is certainly fallible.
While Iraq might already be resigned to being unable to turn their goal difference around, even if they were to win, Senegal are the better side with more offensive weapons and are likely to score at some point, which will open up the game one way or another.
The Lions of Teranga gave France more than a game in the first half of their clash, outshot Norway 16-13 and have already scored three goals.
They could pass this goal tally on their own with the likes of Nicolas Jackson and Sadio Mane in their ranks, regardless of whether Iraq set up defensively as they chase a first World Cup point.
Leg 1: Over 2.5 goals @ 8/15
Sarr could be key for Senegal
While Senegal will be disappointed they couldn’t sustain their performance against France and made too many costly errors against Norway, they definitely carried a threat in both games.
One player who has particularly stood out is Crystal Palace flyer Ismail Sarr, who looks too big a price to ignore to find the back of the net again on Friday.
Sarr has had nine shots in two games, with three on target and already has two goals to his name, and now taking on the perceived worst team in the group, he should get opportunities to do some damage on a side that has already conceded seven goals in the tournament.
Leg 2: Ismaila Sarr to score anytime @ 6/5
Al Hamadi offers Iraq threat
Ali Al Hamadi started in a front two against Norway with Aymen Hussein, but then replaced his injured team-mate in the first half against France, when they played with a lone striker, and he looks set to lead the line with Hussein a big doubt.
While he is far from prolific with five goals in 22 appearances, two of his three goals this season have been scored for Iraq and he will be key to Iraq’s hopes of success, particularly if Hussein is ruled out.
Iraq have struggled in the final third, but France and Norway are tough opponents to overcome, and Senegal’s defensive lapses against Haaland and co could well offer an opportunity.
Al Hamadi leads Iraq’s limited shot count of 15 for the tournament with six, twice as many as Hussein, and he could test the keeper on Friday as Iraq chase their own piece of history.
Leg 3: Ali Al Hamadi 1+ shot on target @ 10/11
Senegal can keep it clean
Senegal have lost their opening two games while conceding six goals, but have still to pick up a yellow card in the tournament, despite having to deal with the wealth of attacking talent that France, in particular, and Norway possess.
Iraq are not too far behind with just a solitary card in each defeat they have suffered, but they are expected to be under similar pressure and on the back foot for large parts, and that could lead to more trouble with the referee.
While under 2.5 cards is tempting at 5/4, Iraq look worth supporting to be given more, just for a little insurance.
Leg 4: Iraq to get more cards @ 4/5
