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Champions League tips: Best bets for the last-16 second legs

04 Mar | BY Phil Agius | MIN READ TIME |
Champions League tips: Best bets for the last-16 second legs

Phil Agius' best bets for the midweek Champions League action include a turnaround in Munich and a high-scoring win for Manchester City.

There is no shortage of pedigree in this week’s Champions League games with Premier League title chasers Manchester City in action along with further European giants in Bayern Munich, Paris St-Germain and Real Madrid.

Bayern have to win at home after losing 1-0 to Lazio in Italy but they are hot favourites at 2/7 to at least triumph in the second leg at the Allianz Arena. 

Manchester City, PSG and Real Madrid all have a great chance to advance to the quarter-finals after winning their first-leg encounters against Real Sociedad, Copenhagen and RB Leipzig respectively. 

Best bets

Bayern Munich -2 /
Paris St-Germain to win /
Manchester City to win & over 3.5 goals /
Real Madrid to win and both teams to score /

Home comforts can help Bayern progress

Bayern Munich are clearly not the force we have become used to and look set to miss out on the Bundesliga title for the first time this season since 2011-12.

The Champions League is their best chance of salvaging any silverware from a disappointing season but they can keep that dream alive at least a little longer by turning around a 1-0 deficit from their first leg against Lazio.

The dismissal of defender Dayot Upamecano and resulting penalty scored by Ciro Immobile led to the only goal and Bayern were wasteful in attack, failing to even hit the target from 17 attempts.

Lazio have lost three of their four Serie A games since that match, though, and look there for the taking if Bayern come out fighting. 

The German club’s wealth of attacking options led by Harry Kane could overwhelm the visitors and the floodgates may open if they make an early breakthrough. Taking Bayern to win by three or more goals at 15/8 could pay off.

Easy does it for PSG

Bettors can grab a nice price of 17/10 for Paris St-Germain to win the second leg of their tie against Real Sociedad in Spain. 

The French giants don’t need to even draw this match to progress to the quarter-final after securing a handy 2-0 lead at home, but they are quite capable of beating the Spanish side for a second time.

Sociedad are having a tough time with only one win in their last nine outings and their last three matches have brought two league defeats and a Copa del Rey exit on penalties to Mallorca after a 1-1 draw at home.

That level of performance won’t cut it against one of Europe’s elite teams and PSG, who have conceded only one goal in their last four games, should prove too powerful for the home team.

City can put on a show at the Etihad

There may have been more concerns for Manchester City if they had returned from the first leg in Denmark with only a one-goal advantage but Phil Foden’s late goal handed the champions a 3-1 lead that should enable them to play with freedom in the second leg.

Copenhagen equalised from their only shot on target of their home match but didn’t see much of the ball and the return game at the Etihad may turn into something of a training exercise.

City have become adept at breaking through even the most tightly packed defences in recent seasons and can be fancied to score several times while giving the Danish defenders a long and tiring night. 

Take Pep Guardiola’s team to build on their Manchester derby success and win a game featuring four or more goals.

Mighty Madrid have done the hard work 

RB Leipzig gave it a good go in their first leg against 14-time European champions Real Madrid but the Spanish side have an impeccable home record and should progress with a second success.

Brahim Diaz scored the only goal of the game for La Liga leaders Madrid in Germany and given that Real have not lost at home in any competition this season, they should now have one foot in the last eight.

With Leipzig having to take a positive approach to have any chance of an upset, this could turn into a higher-scoring encounter than the first game and the German club are capable of grabbing a goal even if it’s likely to be only a consolation.

The first leg was the only time the Red Bulls have failed to score in their last eight games and they scored four times against Bochum on Saturday. Real should outgun their visitors fairly comfortably but 7/4 for Madrid to win a game with both teams scoring appeals.

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