As the National League hits the 20-game mark, our expert analyses how past champions fared at the same stage of their title-winning seasons
When Southport complete their game at Welling United on November 21, the National League table will show that all 24 clubs have played at least 20 matches.
This is the earliest point in any season that that particular milestone has been reached.
In fact, barring the postponement of the Sandgrounders’ game at Gateshead on Saturday, the date would have been November 14.
No wonder some bosses have been complaining that far too many games have been scheduled in the first few months of the season.
You can see their point when you realise that the 20-game point for all teams occurs in the first week in December in most seasons and has even fallen as late as January 1 (in 2010/11).
Most clubs in the division have been required to play about three more weeks of football than they usually would have done at this point in previous seasons.
With the National League general manager Dennis Strudwick bowing out of his role in the last few days, it should be remembered that his fixture schedule has been put in place to alleviate any problems at the end of the campaign – like when Braintree Town played a ridiculous 19 matches in 57 days at the end of season 2013/14.
Added to the reports of a harsh winter, the same managers that have complained in the last few weeks might actually end up thanking the heavily front-loaded 2015/16 list.
But what relevance does this have to how the teams have performed on the pitch?
Playing roughly twice a week should favour clubs who have the big squads to call upon, although the top two teams in the current table – Forest Green Rovers and Cheltenham Town – have actually used the lowest number of players (19 – joint with 12th-placed Aldershot Town).
That could be considered a rather self-serving stat as the compulsion to change a winning team won’t be that high.
For instance in the bottom eight, where the pressure is already hitting home, all clubs barring Altrincham have used 24 or more players. Kidderminster Harriers, with 30 players already taking the field this season, are top of that particular table.
Clubs with limited resources might enjoy playing matches rather than scheduling training, which was certainly the feeling at Braintree in that energy-sapping run, where they actually only lost five games and finished a commendable sixth.
Back to this season and Cheltenham Town are our new 11/4 favourites for the National League title at Betway.
I watched them in the flesh at Bromley and also in the live TV match at Grimsby Town.
On both occasions Gary Johnson’s side had to weather lots of pressure in the first half of the game, coming through those storms to capture six points with organised performances.
One price behind them in our betting and one point above them in the table are Forest Green Rovers.
Aidy Pennock’s team have already lost five games this season – compared to just two for Cheltenham – but have converted a number of possible draws into victories, winning by a one-goal margin seven times in their 19 games.
We favour Cheltenham at the prices because of their superior record in the harder games since the season started.
The Robins have only lost one of nine games against their fellow top 10 in the early table. Contrast that record with those from the New Lawn, who’ve only won one game in six against teams in the same section.
Elsewhere in the play-off places, we find three teams punching well above their weight in terms of expectation.
Chris Kinnear continues his phenomenal job at Crabble where his Dover Athletic side are unbeaten this season. In fact favourites Cheltenham are the only club to score more than two goals against them in this campaign.
Newcomers Bromley have struggled in games against the current top five, but elsewhere have been racking up points to ensure, at the very least, they will be competing at this level again next season.
Another club who were expected to struggle were Braintree Town.
The departure of wily Alan Devonshire was expected to coincide with a relegation struggle, but young boss Danny Cowley has impressed everyone (again!) and coped with the step up to National League management.
The Iron have conceded just two goals in seven games against sides in the current top 10.
Wrexham won five of their six games at the start of the season to develop a wave of optimism at the Racecourse, but the table now reveals that those opening fixtures were rather kind.
Four of the five sides they overcame are now rooted firmly in the bottom eight of the standings. In fact Gary Mills’ team have lost all five of their matches against teams in the top eight.
On top of that, eight of their nine wins came against teams currently in the bottom nine. Those stats would suggest a finish of no better than around 9th or 10th place for the Welsh side.
Eastleigh were a short price at the start of the season and an upturn in form under new boss Chris Todd should see them claim one of the play-off places.
The 20-game mark of the season also gives us a chance to compare recent champions of the division and how they were set at that stage of their title-winning season.
There have been nine seasons of the division in its current 24-team format – barring Chester’s expulsion creating a 23-team version in 2009/10) – and over those last nine seasons the following criteria has applied to this important marker in the fixture list.
Only one team – Mansfield Town in 2012/13 – bucked the important trends. That was a freak season, in which they also had extreme spending power to add to manager Paul Cox’s ranks. It would take a lot to repeat their incredible trampling of some of the trends.
At the 20-game stage:
– Eight of the last nine champions had lost no more than five games (the Stags the exception with six defeats).
– Eight of the last nine champions were in the top three in the table at this stage (The Stags the exception in 8th).
– None of the last nine champions were more than eight points off the leaders at this stage, while the last nine champions all had won at least nine games from their first 20 played in a title season.
Using those historical milestones, Cheltenham now look best placed to make an immediate return to the Football League.
In a wider context a club making an immediate return to League Two in consecutive seasons – after Bristol Rovers in 2014/15 – could be a worry for the three-up/three-down movement.
Hinting at a far weaker top-flight of Non-League in the last few seasons.
Alan Alger: The stats each National League team must hit if they want to be champions
