Our NFL Week 7 player prop picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis and top rushing, receiver and passing yard props across the slate
Seven weeks into the NFL season, one gets a clearer picture of which players are delivering consistently, which offences are finding rhythm, and where opportunities are emerging in the player prop market.
Chasing last week’s biggest performances isn’t necessarily a winning strategy. Like I’ve said in previous weeks, find players whose expected workload and matchups support the number being offered.
Here are my NFL Week 7 player prop picks.
Best NFL Week 7 Running Back Props
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions, 90+ rushing yards (-135)
Big NFL North showdown today in Detroit between the Lions and Green Bay Packers, with some fantasy projections out there seeing him finish with 83 rushing yards. You’re getting a far better return than 70+ (-330) and 80+ (-200). Gibbs has been averaging 100.8 yards per game.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons, 80+ rushing yards (-165)
Robinson remains a big part of the Atlanta passing attack and was targeted seven times two games ago (four catches for 32 yards). I was looking at 30+ receiving yards at -115.
Fellow running back Brian Robinson has been dealing with a hamstring issue and, according to ESPN, won’t be in the lineup, meaning Bijan will have more opportunities in today’s game against the San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco opponents have averaged 38.7 passing attempts per game, so that’s another reason to expect more opportunities for Robinson.
The safer play, though, is 80+ rushing yards (-165), I think, especially because it offers a 10-yard cushion compared with the 90+ market at -115.
Ollie Gordon II, Miami Dolphins, 50+ rushing yards (-175)
One projection has Gordon finishing with 66 rushing yards against the New York Jets today. Gordon is Miami’s No. 1 option, with De’Von Achane out for the season after tearing his ACL and Jaylen Wright available but dealing with a foot injury.
Best NFL Week 7 Wide Receiver Props
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers, 70+ receiving yards (-145)
Watson has 29 catches for 538 yards in six games for the surging Packers, for an 89.7 average. Detroit has struggled to defend the pass (Last in the league with 297.4 passing yards allowed), so I expect Jordan Love to capitalize and use Watson’s downfield ability. Watson has recorded at least 80 receiving yards in each of his last three visits to Ford Field.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets, 60+ receiving yards (-135)
For my NFL betting picks, I like the Jets receiver here; it’s still a pretty conservative play against a bad Miami Dolphins team. Wilson has 418 receiving yards and three touchdowns this season, averaging 5.8 catches per game. The Jets consistently involve him in the passing game, led by Geno Smith.
Best NFL Week 7 Quarterback Props
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 275+ passing yards (+100)
This is my big quarterback prop play of the day, given the 2-4 Rams’ situation. They desperately need this game against the Las Vegas Raiders today. The Rams have one of the league’s most productive passing attacks, but they are missing WR Davante Adams, and WR Puka Nacua is questionable to start with a calf issue. However, news reporting this morning says the Rams are optimistic Nacua will play.
Still, one projection pegs Stafford at 267 passing yards today. I prefer over 275 at plus money.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers, Over 285.5 passing yards (-115)
Back to the Packers-Lions, my favourite game of the day. Again, I am starting with the Lions’ struggles against the pass: they rank 28th in defensive expected points added (EPA) per dropback (how much each play increases or decreases a team’s expected points). The Lions are 30th in defensive dropback success rate, meaning only two other teams in the NFL have been worse at preventing successful passing plays.
In NFL betting, Love 275+ passing yards is -145, while Over 285.5 is -115. So I am asking Love to throw an additional 11 yards for a better price. The 300+ passing yards market at +115 is attractive too, but I don’t feel as aggressive today. I expect a lot of passing in the game.
Enjoy the games!
