Our NFL Week 3 player prop picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top prop bets across the slate
Some injury news as the NFL ramps up its Week 3 Sunday slate, led by the L.A. Chargers at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, taking on the Bills at 1 p.m. EST.
NFL Network is reporting that the L.A. Rams’ Myles Garrett, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year, will likely be on the sidelines for longer than anticipated after knee surgery – roughly six weeks.
ESPN is reporting the Las Vegas Raiders got some great news heading into their game against the New Orleans Saints today – star TE Brock Bowers is expected to play.
And in Chicago, quarterback Caleb Williams has a Grade 2 hamstring injury, with doctors saying he’ll be out three to four weeks, NFL Network and ESPN are reporting.
As you work through today’s schedule to place your NFL betting player props, I’d start with the injury report.
All ruled out for today:
RB Jonathon Brooks of the Panthers (groin)
RB Jonah Coleman of the Broncos (ankle)
WR Nico Collins of the Texans (hamstring)
WR Alec Pierce of the Colts (heel)
TE David Njoku of the Chargers (knee)
WR Caleb Douglas of the Dolphins (ankle)
QB Jaxson Dart of the Giants (knee)
TE Dallas Goedert of the Eagles (knee)
RB Rico Dowdle of the Steelers (toe)
WR Puka Nacua of the Rams (groin)
QB Jayden Daniels of the Commanders (elbow)
As the morning plays out, there’s a chance these players won’t be able to start, according to ESPN, so keep an eye on the wires for updates when making your NFL picks:
WR DJ Moore of the Bills (shoulder)
WR Keon Coleman of the Bills (ankle)
WR Jalen Coker of the Panthers (ankle)
WR Malik Nabers of the Giants (shoulder)
WR Adonai Mitchell of the Jets (finger)
WR Michael Pittman Jr. of the Steelers (foot)
RB Jadarian Price of the Seahawks (chest)
TB Tyjae Spears of the Titans (ankle)
WR Zay Fowers of the Ravens (hamstring)
RB Aaron Jones Sr. of the Vikings (knee)
RB Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring)
WR Mike Evans of the 49ers (hip)
RB Saquon Barkley of the Eagles (stinger)
RB Kyle Monangai of the Bears (knee)
WR DeVonta Smith of the Eagles (hamstring)
K Cairo Santos of the Bears (hip)
Those will all affect volume for the players who are out there.
When scanning the player prop opportunities, look at usage first, then matchup, injuries, game script, and then value in the prop number.
Here are my NFL Week 3 player prop picks.
NFL Week 3 Player Prop Trends
Making player prop picks this early in the season is a challenging exercise. Sportsbooks already have two games of carries, routes, snap counts, red-zone usage, and targets to replace preseason assumptions.
Bettors have to sift through what changes are real and which are two-game noise. Look at running back carry share, wide receiver target share, and red-zone and goal-line opportunities rather than touchdowns scored.
Usage becomes more meaningful by Week 3. So far, we’ve relied on previous-season production, projected roles, and game expectations.
And don’t bet on longer-term tendencies or patterns that show quarterbacks suddenly producing significantly more in Week 3. Look at QBs whose attempts, pace, play-action usage, and the like, have changed through two games.
Best NFL Week 3 Running Back Props
Quinshon Judkins, Browns, Over 58.5 rushing yards (-125)
My big running back lean today, since, as I said the other day, he’s due to break out. The game with the Panthers today profiles as a grind-it-out, lower-scoring affair, with Carolina having allowed opposing backs to clear similar rushing numbers in recent games.
Judkins is positioned for a heavy workload if the Browns stay committed to the run.
Chase Brown, Bengals, Over 60.5 rushing (-115)
Brown and the Bengals face the Steelers today, who have allowed 76+ rushing yards to opposing backs in recent weeks. Brown should see consistent early down and goal-line work.
Brown has handled 36 carries through two games, rushing for 56 yards on 16 carries in Week 1, then 80 yards on 20 carries in Week 2. It’s a volume play for me, up against a Steelers defence that has allowed 128 rushing yards per game.
Best NFL Week 3 Wide Receiver Props
Garrett Wilson, Jets, Over 80 receiving yards (-110)
I prefer Wilson at this number, rather than 70+ at -160 at Betway, since I’m essentially even money for only 10 additional yards compared to paying that other steep price.
Wilson has 79 and 57 receiving yards through two games, on seven targets in each, so the volume has been steady. Plus, the Lions are vulnerable through the air – allowing 329 passing yards per game so far, third most in the league according to NFL.com.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks, Over 90 receiving yards (-115)
Again, the extra ten yards are worth taking to get away from the -160 juice that Betway offers for 80+ yards, in the Seahawks game today against the Commanders.
I’m basing that on Smith-Njigba’s big-time early-season usage for Seattle, even with Sam Darnold out for two games with an injury (he returns to the lineup today) – 11 targets in each game, 8 catches for 122 yards in one game and 9 for 155 in the other.
The matchup supports it – Washington just gave up 153 yards to Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb.
Best NFL Week 3 Quarterback Props
Tyler Shough, Saints, Over 250 passing yards (-120)
I really like this one. Shough has been one of the season’s early-season surprises, leading the Saints to a 1-1 record as they take on the 2-0 Raiders today. Even against an improved Raiders pass defence, his early-season volume makes 250+ appealing.
Shough ranks second in the league in passing yards, with 662, second only to the Packers’ Jordan Love (844).
The Saints are at home, they’re pass happy, and the Raiders rank 10th in the NFL in passing defence, according to FOX Sports (allowing 184 passing yards per game).
Josh Allen, Bills, Over 250 passing yards (+115)
I was looking at 225+ yards passing (-165) at Betway, but I think 250+ is the better value play. Allen has thrown for 334 and 248 yards in Buffalo’s first two games. Allen’s dual-threat ability and Buffalo on home field, plus the extra rest, all point to a high passing volume (especially if Moore suits up).
The Chargers are really struggling and face a must-win game. Their defence has allowed 265 passing yards per game.
Best Touchdown Props for Sunday
Sticking with my individual picks, leaning on workload/usage: Judkins Over 58.5 rushing yards, plus Brown Over 60.5 rushing yards, plus Smith-Njigba Over 90 receiving yards (+529 at Betway).
