NFL Week 3 TD Scorer Picks | Sunday NFL Picks

26 Sep | news | BY Mark Keast | MIN READ TIME |

Our NFL Week 3 TD scorer picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top TD picks across the slate

Two weeks into the NFL season, we’re getting a much clearer read on how teams want to operate around the goal line.

A slew of injuries to starting quarterbacks – Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Jaxson Dart – have made wagering on touchdown props more complicated, but we’re still getting a read on which running backs are getting carries inside the 10, which receivers the quarterbacks look to when the field gets compressed, which quarterbacks can score using their legs.

Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen, for example, has engineered nine touchdowns in two games, as the Bills head into their home set-to against the L.A. Chargers Sunday afternoon (1 p.m. EST kickoff time) – five through the air, four on the ground.

Here are my NFL Week 3 TD scorer picks.

NFL Week 3 TD Scorer Trends

It’s early, but the tendency so far has been passing touchdowns over rushing touchdowns, according to NFL.com. Back to Allen, though, quarterbacks have been taking a meaningful share of goal-line scores. The Titans’ Cam Ward already has two rushing TDs.

Mobile quarterbacks are taking away premium goal-line opportunities, and focus on running backs with established inside-the-5 roles, like the Ravens’ Derrick Henry, who has four rushing touchdowns in two games.

Also, while NFL.com reported that games averaged 49.4 combined points through Week 1, that dropped to 40.9 through Week 2, with five defences holding opponents without an offensive touchdown that Sunday.

Best NFL Week 3 Running Back TD Prop

When making your picks, look at tomorrow’s matchups, not what they’ve done over the previous few weeks.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions, 2+ Touchdowns

The Lions play the New York Jets tomorrow at 1 p.m. EST at Ford Field, and Gibbs has had a strong season so far: 208 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, and a 4.6-yard average.

Gibbs has already received 11 carries inside the 20 and five inside the 5-yard line, giving him one of the strongest high-value rushing profiles in the NFL.

The market knows that. In NFL betting picks at Betway, Gibbs anytime touchdown scorer is -260. So not a great straight-bet price. I’m looking to parlay Gibbs with other picks. Or, consider 2+ touchdowns for Gibbs at +200.

That’s an enticing number, at Betway, compared to other books. Gibbs also had a receiving touchdown in their game against Buffalo (he has 11 receptions so far).

The Jets haven’t given up a rushing TD, but Gibbs has two paths to score, and Detroit has scored 31 points in each of its two games.

I’ll take Gibbs 2+ touchdowns.

Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns, Anytime Touchdown

Judkins is +100 to score a TD against the Panthers this week. He’s handled the bulk of Cleveland’s running back work so far – 24 of 28 RB carries through two games. The Panthers have already allowed four rushing TDs to backs (also allowed a league-high 406 yards to RBs in two games) and ranked poorly against the run last season.

This is the week for him to make a leap – seven rushing TDs in 2025.

Best NFL Week 2 Wide Receiver TD Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, Anytime Touchdown

My favourite wide receiver TD play. St. Brown has 209 receiving yards and four touchdowns (27 targets) over two games.

Betway has him at -115 for an anytime touchdown, a price I really like, since he’s also tied for the NFL lead with six red zone targets, according to Yahoo Sports, with three red zone TDs.

The Jets also have a good passing defence – allowing only 131.5 passing yards per game, second-best in the NFL, behind Seattle. They’ve given up three passing TDs, though.

But St. Brown is money in the red zone.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks, Anytime Touchdown

In NFL betting, Betway has him at plus money (+100). He’s had six red-zone targets, tied for the NFL lead, with four receiving touchdowns on 277 receiving yards, 22 targets, and 17 catches.

The Seahawks take on the Commanders in Washington. The Commanders have already allowed seven passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL.

Plus, QB Sam Darnold is officially off the injury list and will start tomorrow. Those two have an established connection from last season, although Drew Lock, in Darnold’s absence, threw three touchdowns to Smith-Njigba last week.

Best NFL Week 2 Quarterbacks TD Props

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, Anytime Touchdown

My top quarterback pick in the touchdown category, as the Bills face the Chargers tomorrow.

Allen already has four red-zone carries and three carries inside the five-yard line. Against Detroit, he ran 14 times for 69 yards. Allen is always a threat to scramble if a play breaks down. That isn’t all, though. Allen is also part of the goal-line offence.

Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans, Anytime Touchdown

The Titans are in East Rutherford, New Jersey, to play the Giants.

I really like Ward at the Betway price (+400), since he’s not only a mobile quarterback who could scramble for a score on his own, but, like Allen, he is baked into the Titans’ red-zone offence. Forty per cent of his eight carries have come from inside the opponent’s five-yard line.