Ten new head coaches headline a futures market shaped by team turnarounds, overcome adversity and exceeded expectations
For NFL Coach of the Year, if you’re making a bet there, the focus is more on what team you think will outperform expectations than on the individual.
This was a busy off-season on the NFL coaching change front – ten new head coaches were hired for the NFL season.
NFL Coach of the Year odds 2026
In NFL betting at Betway, the shortest odds for Coach of the Year are dominated by new hires.
The Arizona Cardinals hired Mike LaFleur (former Rams OC). The Atlanta Falcons hired Kevin Stefanski (former Browns HC). The Baltimore Ravens brought in Jesse Minter as head coach (former Chargers DC). The Buffalo Bills hired Joe Brady as their new head coach (promoted from OC). The Cleveland Browns hired Todd Monken (former Ravens OC).
The Las Vegas Raiders hired Klint Kubiak (former Seahawks OC). The Miami Dolphins hired Jeff Hafley (former Packers DC). The New York Giants hired John Harbaugh as head coach (former Ravens HC). The Pittsburgh Steelers hired Mike McCarthy (former Cowboys HC). The Tennessee Titans brought in Robert Saleh (former 49ers DC).
Harbaugh is +600 at Betway, to win Coach of the Year, followed by Minter (+750), Brady (+1200), then Kellen Moore, in his second season with the New Orleans Saints (+1200), Saleh (+1200), Brian Schottenheimer, entering his second season as the Dallas Cowboys’ head coach (+1600), Stefanski (+1600), Ben Johnson of the Chicago Bears (+1800), then Kubiak (+1800).
Harbaugh is the first choice for a lot of people, I am sure. You have name recognition and pedigree. Harbaugh led the Ravens to a Super Bowl in the past (2012).
But reports out of Baltimore said he had worn out his welcome with some players. Media commentators call him over-rated.
It’s interesting, looking at the Betway odds – Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs (+5000), Sean McVay of the L.A. Rams (+3500), Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers (+3000) are way down the list because success is expected of them.
Bettors for this award reward those who exceed expectations, those who help author dramatic turnarounds. Coaches who somehow overcome significant adversity.
Mike Vrabel of the New England Patriots won last season after leading the team to a 14-3 season and a Super Bowl appearance, where they lost to the Seahawks. That followed two consecutive four-win seasons for the Patriots.
No one is expecting anything significant from the Giants this season (+7000 to win the Super Bowl, +550 to win the NFC East). Does a playoff spot for a team that went 4-13 last season and an emergence of Jaxson Dart at quarterback get it done? That’s assuming Dart, who has a concussion history, can even stay on his feet.
Five of the past nine winners were in their first season with their respective teams (Vrabel, McVay with the Rams, Matt Nagy with the Bears, Stefanski with the Browns, Brian Daboll with the Giants). Big turnarounds get rewarded.
NFL Coach of the Year betting picks 2026
The Ravens’ Minter might be your best pick. According to ESPN, the Ravens have the 9th easiest schedule for 2026, based on their win-loss opponents’ win percentage from the 2025 season (0.479).
The Ravens have one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson, a legitimate MVP betting favourite at +700. The Ravens are +1200 at Betway to win the Super Bowl, after the Rams (+500), Bills (+1000), and Seahawks (+1000).
The Ravens went 8-9 last season despite finishing with a positive scoring differential. A healthier season combined with an easier schedule adds up to a major rebound.
I can see the Ravens scoring an 11- or 12-win season, for an AFC North title. I’m going to go Minter at +750.
The Lions are also loaded, especially on offence. So Dan Campbell at +2500 is really intriguing, led by Jared Goff, who seems to always bang out 4,000+ yard passing seasons, and an MVP candidate at running back, Jahmyr Gibbs (+10000), who’s going to get a lot more goal-line touches now that David Montgomery is out of there. That bodes well for Campbell for Coach of the Year.
