Tampa Bay visits Buffalo, Edmonton hosts Philadelphia, and Vegas faces Utah as we target value in totals, puck lines and moneylines
About the Toronto Maple Leafs and underdog value at +135 last night at home against the Colorado Avalanche – never mind. I did go for the Over 6.5, thankfully, but grateful I didn’t jump on that Leafs line, as Colorado won handily 6-3.
Undervalued home squad? Not today, when it comes to the Leafs. They are officially mired in a slump, frustration is setting in, and they are right up against the salary cap, which restricts what they can do on the player-movement front.
Anyway, on to tonight. Six games are on the NHL schedule, with three catching our eye from a sports betting perspective: Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers, and Utah Mammoth at Las Vegas Golden Knights.
A potentially undervalued home underdog, a heavy favourite whose puck line might offer better value than its moneyline, and a closely priced game with value in the totals market.
In NHL betting at Betway, the Lightning are -125 moneyline favourites, while the Sabres are +105 underdogs. Tampa is favoured by 1.5 goals on the puck line (+175), with Buffalo at +1.5 (-225). The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the Over priced at -115, and the Under at -105.
Game time is 7 p.m. EST, at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. Buffalo has an 8-6-3 record overall and a 2-1-2 record in Atlantic Division play. Tampa Bay is 11-4-2 overall.
I was looking at that Buffalo moneyline, at plus money, but I’m taking a second look at the Over. Tampa is missing Brayden Point, who has 16 points in 17 games, but Buffalo is just 4-5-0 at home.
Seven of Tampa’s nine road games have gone over 6.5 goals, and four of the last five meetings between these two clubs have produced at least seven goals. And both starting goaltenders have struggled: Andrei Vasilevskiy has an .883 save percentage, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is at .878.
There’s some uncertainty here with Point, but Tampa has a unique ability to generate high-danger chances.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-115)
The Oilers are -180 moneyline favourites, while the Flyers are +150. Edmonton is favoured by 1.5 goals on the puck line (+125), with Philadelphia at +1.5 (-160). The total is also set at 6.5 goals, with the Over priced at +110, and the Under at -130.
Game time is 9 p.m. EST at Rogers Place in Edmonton. The Oilers (13-3-3) are coming off a two-goal Leon Draisaitl performance in a 3-1 win over the New York Rangers. The Oilers are 5-3-2 at home.
The Flyers are 5-10-5 overall, 1-6-2 on the road, and are currently putting out Matvei Michkov’s rumoured trade-request stories. Michkov has six goals and three assists over the last ten games.
I like the Oilers -1.5 at +125, which makes the puck line an interesting alternative to the moneyline if you really like Edmonton on home ice, in what is, on paper, a big mismatch.
Connor McDavid is torching the NHL this season, leading the league with 48 points, and Draisaitl leads with 18 goals. The Flyers defence allows 3.25 goals per game.
Philly is starting Dan Vladar in net, armed with an .880 save percentage and a 3.27 goals-against average.
Best Bet: Oilers -1.5 (+125)
The Golden Knights are -125 moneyline favourites, while the Mammoth are +105. Vegas is favoured by 1.5 goals on the puckline, at +185, with Utah at +1.5 (-236). The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the Over priced at -105, and the Under at -115.
Game time is 9:30 p.m. EST at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The Golden Knights are having a great season, 12-5-2, and are 6-3-0 at home. Utah is no slouch, at 10-7-1, and is 6-5-1 on the road.
Mark Stone has been money for Vegas – 10 goals and nine assists. Logan Cooley leads the charge for the Mammoth, with 11 goals and 10 assists.
I’m not eager to grab that -1.5 Vegas puckline, even at that plus number, since Utah is a good team. I also considered the Under, but Utah’s power play is elite.
Vegas, with Adin Hill and Carter Hart, have the better goaltending tandem, and Utah is finishing a lengthy road trip.
Vegas is without Noah Hanifin, while Utah’s Dylan Guenther is a game-time decision.
Best Bet: Vegas Moneyline (-125)
Also tonight: New York Rangers vs Calgary Flames (Calgary Moneyline, +120); Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks (San Jose Moneyline, +120)
