Our NFL Week 9 player prop picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis and key trends across the slate
Week 9 on the NFL front (incredible to think that) kicks off in Madrid this morning, with the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Atlanta Falcons at 9:30 a.m. EST, setting us up for a busy day of player prop betting.
Injuries are once again shaping the betting markets, with high-profile players either sidelined or facing uncertainty heading into today’s games. Those absences create opportunities in rushing, receiving, and touchdown markets, especially as replacement players take on bigger roles.
The Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers are among teams dealing with significant injury concerns.
Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is out, which changes the outlook for wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s receiving props, as Drew Lock takes the reins for their game against Arizona. Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith is out, meaning more targets for Philly’s other receivers and tight ends in their game with the New York Giants.
Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (ribs) was questionable for today’s game against the Dolphins in Florida, which could affect Jared Goff’s target distribution, but he looks like a starter. Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens is questionable in their game against the Indianapolis Colts, which could create more opportunities for CeeDee Lamb.
Wide receivers Mike Evans, Christian Kirk and Deebo Samuel are all out as the 49ers take on the Raiders, meaning more opportunities for running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle. Texans running back David Montgomery is out, potentially shifting Houston’s rushing workload and increasing focus on Woody Marks and goal-line opportunities.
Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson is out, meaning more touches for Rhamondre Stevenson.
Thirteen games are on the schedule today, including tonight’s primetime game between the surging Chicago Bears and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Here are my NFL Week 9 player prop picks.
Best NFL Week 9 Running Back Props
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons, Over 129.5 total rushing and receiving yards (-115)
Two avenues to cash a ticket here. In NFL betting, I like the Over since Brian Robinson Jr. was placed on injured reserve yesterday with a hamstring injury, so Robinson will get more work.
He leads the NFL with 780 rushing yards and has 983 yards from scrimmage through eight games, for an average of 122.9 yards per game.
The Bengals are allowing 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, the fourth most in the NFL. The Bengals gave up 117 rushing yards to Tony Pollard of the Titans last week.
Kenneth Walker III, Kansas City Chiefs, Over 91.5 rushing yards (-115)
In NFL betting picks, I was looking at 90+ rushing yards at -120, a good balance of risk and reward, as the Chiefs take on the New York Jets at home today.
Overall, Walker has rushed for 770 yards on 141 carries over seven games, averaging 110 yards per game. He stands to see significant production today, around 20 carries, based on projections I am seeing.
Taking the Over, though, I am accepting the risk of Walker finishing with exactly 90 or 91 yards in exchange for a slightly better price.
Best NFL Week 9 Wide Receiver Props
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals, 80+ receiving yards (-110)
Higgins is an attractive option against the Falcons in that Madrid game, coming off a 10-catch, 155-yard performance against the Titans last week. I was considering Betway’s Over 77.5 receiving yards at -115, but the alternate 80+ yards market at -110 offers a slightly better payout. You give up two yards of protection for the improved price.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, 80+ receiving yards (-110)
He’s playing today against the woeful Dolphins, which boosts Detroit’s passing attack. While St. Brown has exceeded 75.5 receiving yards just once in his past five games, he’s a proven high-value target for Goff and could be due for a rebound game today.
The Dolphins are vulnerable against the pass, especially against slot receivers.
Best NFL Week 9 Quarterback Props
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers, 250+ passing yards (+100)
At even money, a $100 wager returns $100 in profit, way more appealing than risking $200 to win $100 on the 225+ passing yards market.
Yes, the 49ers are dealing with those injuries at wide receiver, but the Raiders’ struggles on defence make a pathway to 250+ plausible for the MVP candidate.
Las Vegas ranks 25th in the NFL against the pass, allowing 235.5 passing yards per game. Demarcus Robinson has been activated from injured reserve for San Francisco and could take on a leading wide receiver role. McCaffrey is a big-time receiving option on screens checkdowns and short passes.
Matthew Stafford, L.A. Rams, Over 246.5 passing yards (-115)
Stafford has been putting up some big passing numbers, including games of 327, 390 and 383 yards this season. Washington’s defence is vulnerable, and the Rams should be able to move the football. Sixty degrees and sunny skies are the weather forecast for Northwest Stadium in Maryland today.
Stafford is a risk, though – he has failed to reach 247 passing yards in three consecutive games, and Davante Adams is out.
However, I am going to sprinkle a little money on this, with Washington ranking 28th against the pass, allowing 243 passing yards per game.
Stafford’s season average is 268.3 passing yards.
