Our NFL Week 4 player prop picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top TD picks across the slate
Three weeks into the NFL season, bettors have enough evidence to separate early-season chatter from trends with staying power.
Offensive roles are taking shape, player usage is becoming clearer, while injuries are creating opportunities.
Speaking of injuries, here is where we are, going into Sunday’s slate of games:
Ravens WR Zay Flowers (hamstring) is playing, ESPN reports. Bills WR DJ Moore (shoulder) will play today against the Patriots. Bears RB D’Andre Swift (knee) and QB Tyson Bagent (concussion) are expected to start. Texans’ WR Nico Collins (hamstring) and Rams WR Puka Nacua (hip) will both play. Jets TE Kenyon Sadiq (back) is questionable.
For the later games, Chargers RB Keaton Mitchell (foot) will play, according to ESPN, but Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (foot)is questionable. WR Mike Evans of the 49ers (ribs) is a game-time decision. Panthers WR Jalen Coker (quad) is unlikely to play against the Lions tonight.
Ruled out for Sunday: CB Jaycee Horn (quad) and CB Mike Jackson (groin) of the Panthers, WR Jayden Reed (neck) of the Packers, Colts WR Keenan Allen (groin), Rams TE Terrance Ferguson (ankle), Dolphins RB De’Von Achane (knee), Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (ankle), Jets RB Breece Hall (quad), Saints RB Travis Etienne (hamstring), Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring), Seahawks RB Jadarian Price (chest), Bucs QB Baker Mayfield (thumb), Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (elbow) and Commanders RB Rachaad White (shoulder).
This morning, the Eagles announced that OT Lane Johnson is not playing for personal reasons. The Rams announced TE Colby Parkinson is inactive (knee).
Here are my NFL Week 4 player prop picks.
NFL Week 4 Player Prop Trends
As said, bettors can start identifying players whose workloads are growing even if the box score results haven’t caught up yet. See Darren Waller, a player with an expanding role in Carolina.
Receiving markets are moving towards established No. 1 options, which are pushing up receiving yard numbers – Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, for example. Bettors are focusing more on target share, routes, and game script when looking at receiver props.
Best NFL Week 4 Running Back Props
James Cook, Buffalo Bills, first touchdown scorer, +450
In NFL betting picks at Betway, I like to work in a first touchdown bet when I can, for more little money, a nice high-variance play. Cook enters the Patriots’ game with 346 rushing yards on 58 carries (6.0 yards per carry) and two rushing touchdowns.
Cook has nine red-zone carries, including five carries inside the 10-yard line. Buffalo is going to get scoring opportunities in this game – and their offence has produced eight rushing TDs in three games.
Cook had three rushing touchdowns in two games against New England last season. And according to stats I saw, Cook has scored the game’s first TD eight times since the start of 2023.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens, 90+ rushing yards (-165)
In NFL betting, mix up the higher-variance play with a safer bet, right? Henry is playing his old team for the first time, tied for the league lead with six rushing TDs, and Tennessee’s run defence ranks 24thin the NFL.
Best NFL Week 4 Wide Receiver Props
Darren Waller, Carolina Panthers, 4+ receptions (+100)
Waller has gone two, three and five receptions through the Panthers’ three games. Last week he had eight targets. And Detroit has been hammered by tight ends – 29 catches for 351 yards and six TDs so far.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans, 40+ reception yards (-120)
According to Fantasy Pros, Dallas has been a favourable matchup for tight ends, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per opportunity to the position. Collins is coming back, yes, but Schultz has 19 catches for 205 yards through three games, including a 12-catch, 140-yard explosion against Cincinnati.
Best NFL Week 4 Quarterbacks Props
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers, 250+ passing yards (+100)
He’s thrown for over 250 yards in every game this season, and Detroit has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL (326.3 per game).
This game also carries one of the highest totals in Week 4 (51.5). If Detroit scores, as I expect, Carolina will keep throwing.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, Over 275+ passing yards (-105)
Jacksonville is built to stop the run, so Burrow should be throwing all day. Bettors are liking Burrow this week. I won’t go all the 300+ for +150 at Betway, because that’s asking for a substantially bigger performance for a guy who’s thrown for 254, 207 and 282 yards so far. But I like the game environment. The Jaguars-Bengals carries another big 51.5 total. The Bengals have been aggressive through the air.
