NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread | Sunday NFL Picks

02 Oct 2026 | news | BY Mark Keast | MIN READ TIME |

Our NFL Week 4 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections

Nice night for me last night: I took the Cleveland Browns +2.5 on the Betway spread, and they beat an agitated Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24.

It’s also nice to hit on a few props, right? I hit Browns WR Denzel Boston over 36.5 reception yards (he had 89), but I missed Steelers WR DK Metcalf anytime touchdown scorer.

Still, a good night.

Here are my NFL Week 4 picks against the spread.

NFL Week 4 Betting Landscape

Several betting storylines are shaping up as we head into Week 4. Three games have produced enough information to challenge some preseason assumptions, but not enough to trust every 3-0 team or 1-2 record at face value

For example, five teams enter Week 4 undefeated. The Las Vegas Raiders are one of those teams, yet in NFL betting at Betway, Kansas City is a 4.5-point road favourite when they visit Allegiant Stadium Sunday. How real are the Raiders?

Buffalo, as well. The Bills are 3-0 and laying 6.5 points to New England at Highmark Stadium Sunday, a team that was neck and neck, some would even argue superior, to the Bills last season. Have the Patriots regressed that much?

Plus, bettors need to keep emotions in check and not overreact. Look at the Eagles, for example, beaten up by backup quarterback Case Keenum and the Chicago Bears Monday night, 27-7.

Philadelphia is a home 3.5-point underdog to the 1-2 L.A. Rams on Sunday. That’s an unusually strong market statement about an Eagles downgrade after the loss to the Bears.

This week also features some big spreads: Baltimore is -11.5 against Tennessee, Minnesota is -10.5 against the Dolphins, and the Buffalo and Seattle games are big as well.

NFL Week 4 Betting Trends

One thing I noticed – Week 3 was exceptionally close, with 12 games decided by one possession. That tied an NFL single-week record. That’s something to be cautious about when casually laying large numbers this week.

NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) vs Miami Dolphins

As I said, in NFL betting, the Vikings are a huge 10.5-point favourite, a consensus bet across the board for Sunday. When measuring points allowed per game, Minnesota ranks second in the NFL at 13.7, behind the Jacksonville Jaguars at 12.0. Miami just lost RB De’Von Achane for the season (ACL). The Dolphins are 0-3 and are averaging 12 points per game. The game is 4:30 p.m. EST, in Minnesota.

My pick: Minnesota -10.5.

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) vs L.A. Chargers

I see a lot of platforms liking the Seahawks to cover that -7.5. That’s where I’m leaning. The Seahawks are coming off an upset loss to the Washington Commanders and are at home at Lumen Field, where they haven’t lost in a year. The Chargers are 0-3, have lost six straight, and the wheels are about to fall right off. Game time is 4:25 p.m. EST.

My pick: Seattle -7.5

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

In my NFL betting picks for Sunday, I’m also looking at the Raiders game. I’ve been a huge fan watching what new head coach Klint Kubiak has pulled off in Las Vegas so far. Free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown for 671 yards for the 3-0 Raiders and is first in the NFL with nine touchdowns. Pro Bowl DE Maxx Crosby has re-committed himself to the organization, and the Raiders lead the league in turnovers, with four. They just go after the ball.

But the Chiefs represent their first real test against an NFL heavyweight. Kansas City’s defence is more reliable, and they have Kenneth Walker III, a brilliant free-agent signing, who leads the NFL in rushing with 360 yards and two TDs.

Game time is 4:25 p.m. EST.

My pick: Kansas City -4.5.

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs New England Patriots

If this went to -7.5, I’d stay away, but today that spread sits within a touchdown. Buffalo has started 3-0 straight up and ATS, and I am looking at the New England injuries as they march into Buffalo’s den. Important defenders DT Christian Barmore and CB Christian Gonzalez are out. Gonzalez is New England’s top cornerback, and Barmore is a disruptor, so that’s music to Josh Allen’s ears.

Game time is 1 p.m. EDT.

My pick: Buffalo -6.5