Ilya Sorokin’s presence and Toronto’s quick turnaround create value on the Under, while two goal-scorer props stand out
The Toronto Maple Leafs dropped their NHL season opener to the Montreal Canadiens last night, 3-2, in a game that should give bettors a few early snapshots.
One, this isn’t last year’s Maple Leafs. That lineup, with guys like Max Domi, Matias Maccelli, and Bobby McMann getting major minutes, has been replaced by guys like Kirill Marchenko, No. 1 draft pick Gavin McKenna up front, Darren Raddysh on the back end, and Sergei Bobrovsky in net.
Giving up Matthew Kies in the Marchenko trade with Columbus Monday was a big loss, but Marchenko danced last night, got his first point as a Leaf 48 seconds in, was super strong on the puck, engineered several scoring chances, and looked comfortable on Auston Matthews’ flank.
Still, don’t automatically price the Leafs as an offensive powerhouse just yet. Toronto generated 28 shots but got little offensive contribution beyond William Nylander, who had two goals.
Nylander may be worth watching on the goal/point/shots prop front. He clearly didn’t mesh with what ex-coach Craig Berube preached, and it reportedly led to tension on the bench last season. He looked like a new man with renewed energy last night.
There will be an adjustment period. The Leafs had ten new players in their lineup last night compared to the lineup that closed out last season. Nylander ever said it about McKenna – the new players are going to need an adjustment period after a preseason where they played just four games, then got thrown into the regular season cauldron.
Which brings us to tonight, with the New York Islanders in town to play the Leafs. Game time is 7:30 p.m. EST.
In NHL betting at Betway, the Maple Leafs are -125 moneyline favourites against the Islanders (+110). Toronto is +185 to cover the -1.5-goal puckline, while New York is -236 at +1.5. The total is set at 5.5, with the Over at -140 and the Under at +110.
The market remains cautious about laying a big number with Toronto, and isn’t necessarily expecting another low-scoring game after last night’s 3-2 game.
No word yet on who the Leafs are starting in goal, with Anthony Stolarz backing up Bobrovsky.
F Nick Paul rejoined the lineup last night, meaning there are no immediate injury concerns. All the other guys – Domi, Dakota Joshua, Elvis Merzlikins – are on the IL and are out longer term.
Matthew Barzal is out for the Islanders, who are playing their first game of the season.
Best Bets for Tonight
That under is aggressive, supporting the lower-scoring argument. The main reason is Ilya Sorokin in net for the Islanders, a legitimate Vezina-calibre goaltender, likely facing Stolarz. There’s no confirmation yet, but we’re making an educated assumption that he will be in net, since Bobrovsky is 38 and stopped 21 of 24 shots in last night’s game.
The Leafs are on a back-to-back and the Islanders are missing Barzal, the Islanders’ leading scorer last season, with 72 points in 81 games.
Take the under 5.5 at +110.
I’m also looking at the Islanders ML (+110). Sorokin went 2-0 against the Leafs last season, with a 2.01 GAA and a .907 save percentage.
The Leafs played a tough game 24 hours ago, and are still figuring out their chemistry. Their legs will be heavy tonight.
On the player prop side, I have Matthews over 0.5 goals at +175. The Leafs will lean heavily on him offensively. With the Islanders, sprinkle a small amount on Jean-Gabriel Pageau over 0.5 goals at a whopping +500 at Betway, since he scored against Toronto last season and Barzal is out, opening up offensive opportunities.
Pageau centres the Islanders’ third line, with Victor Eklund and Emil Heineman, and scored 17 goals last season, including three short-handed markers.
