The horse racing broadcaster provides his selections for the first day of November's three day meeting at Cheltenham.
Four races on ITV from the first day of Cheltenham’s three day November meeting, and the potential for significant rain on the day muddies the waters, both in terms of the season’s form so far, which has largely taken place on better ground, and race fitness so early in the campaign.
13:45 Middle Distance Veterans Chase 2m 4f
The eye always gets drawn towards the 10-year-olds initially as they are eligible for this series for the first time and hence it can represent a hidden drop in class. Fugitif is the obvious one given he has been such a regular in competitive handicaps at this trip and at the track on many other occasions, including a win at the December meeting off 151 (today 145) as well as placing at the Festival itself in 2023. He is definitely a contender but does need a bit of finessing and is not the easiest ride for a conditional.
I have been mentioning Anthony Honeyball’s good start to the season regularly over the last couple of weeks (Gustavian in the Badger Beer for example) and he saddles the still well treated Lord Baddesley, another 10-year-old. He made short work of a small field at Newbury on his seasonal return having had a wind op in the close season. A 7lb higher mark is still very workable but a lot of rain may not be entirely in his favour if it places more pressure on his breathing.
Instead it may be worth siding with ELDORADO ALLEN / (13:45 Cheltenham) who whilst not the force of old, and without a win since Denman Chase in 2022, does handle soft ground and has a very good record fresh. His first up form figures read 1211232 off breaks of more than 180 days and his stable have made a good start to the season.
Mention should also be given to Gunshot Ridge who would have gone very close to winning at this meeting last year, closing on Matata when falling at the last. Trainer Olly Murphy must wonder what he has to do to saddle a winner at this meeting. He is 0/24 with no less than seven of those runners finishing second!
14:20 Sun’s ‘Save Our Bets’ Novices’ Chase 3m 1f (Listed)
The positive comments for Anthony Honeyball clearly apply here as well with recent course winner Leave of Absence whose victory over Pied Piper saw him take a hefty hike in the ratings. As this is a conditions race that is not against him here but it may magnify the advantage he apparently has over the rest of the field. The other concern is if conditions do become testing, whether that will suit a horse that has several long breaks in his profile.
Wade Out gives Olly Murphy another chance to lay his hoodoo at this meeting but with a run under his belt and the ability to handle deep ground DOUBLE POWERFUL / (14:20 Cheltenham) appeals. He was a massive improver over hurdles, starting out off a mark of just 76 and rising right up to 134, but showed himself to be potentially every bit as good over fences when third to Zurich here in October. The longer trip should pose no issue and he has won on both soft and heavy ground albeit off much lower marks.
14:55 Shloer Chase 2m (Grade 2)
The feature race of the afternoon is the Grade 2 Shloer Chase where Jonbon will be looking for a hat trick of victories. In the past there were seldom any issues in getting him fit as his tendency to live on his nerves tended to keep an excess weight at bay. Last season however he was much more settled on his return and had to work quite hard and even though he handles cut in the ground well. If he is a gallop or two short he could be vulnerable with connections no doubt with an eye on the Tingle Creek in three weeks at Sandown. I have mentioned several times the perils of taking a short price about a horse in races, where even though they have a clear class edge, it may not be their main objective (Kalpana in the September Stakes for example) and that makes me a little uneasy in taking a short price here.
The issue is that the contest does not really have an each way shape either with just the seven runners but with plenty of pace likely via Matata and the returning Haddex Des Obeaux, and the ability to handle deep ground a small investment on LIBBERTY HUNTER / (14:55 Cheltenham) could be the way to play. The jury is still out as to whether he can progress sufficiently to be a player in races like the Queen Mother, but he would likely have made the frame in that race but for capsizing three out. Harry Cobden is building up an interesting association with the Evan Williams yard with four of his last seven rides obliging including Libberty Hunter here last season.
15:30 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 2m 5f (Grade 2)
A bunch of promising novices all trying to make their way up the pecking order in the early part of the season and the strongest Irish challenge of the day. Gavin Cromwell is always worthy of respect at the track (18/110 A/E 1.50 and of course a Gold Cup winner) but the yard approach this meeting in a bit of a slump with just one winner from 41 runners so far in November (A/E 0.32) and so a watching brief on the wonderfully named Welonlyhavedone (we’ll only have der one) is advised as a barometer to see how others from the yard may fare.
He looked as if he would have won at Galway last time when tumbling at the last. Whilst HEADS UP / (15:30 Cheltenham) may have been flattered by a soft lead in the Festival Bumper it still represents a decent level of form as well as proven ability to run well at the track. He accomplished a straight forward task on his hurdling debut at Listowel but the race has thrown up subsequent winners and he will handle soft ground. Behind him in the Festival Bumper was No Drama This End who was far less suited by the way the race developed and could well make up into the better hurdler this season. He is however reported by his trainer to be quite a stuffy sort and a few of the Nicholls horses have looked to be coming on for their first up runs this campaign.
Visit Betway’s horse racing betting page.
