The horse racing broadcaster offers up his five best bets for Saturday's racing, headlined by Saint Etienne in the Northumberland Plate.
The Northumberland Plate at Newcastle is the feature race on Saturday and, along with York, makes up the eight races on ITV. Whilst the impact of warm temperatures on turf is obvious, its effect on Newcastle’s AW surface is more nuanced. Based on Thursday’s card, it suggests it did not ride as deep as might have been anticipated; there was no obvious golden highway up the near-side rail, but it looked quite hard to make ground.
The feature race, the Northumberland Plate, is one local trainer Brian Ellison targets, and SAINT ETIENNE 10/1 (15:15 Newcastle) looks to have been bought with the race clearly in mind. He had plenty of AW form in France before being purchased for €100,000 last summer when rated 100. That mark has now dropped to 92 off the back of being largely campaigned on turf, and he is by a sire in Le Havre whose progeny excel on the AW at this track (13/59, A/E 1.73). He needs to break from the stalls a little more alertly than last time, and his stamina needs to be taken on trust, but races on the Round Course here are often falsely run, so his tactical speed could well prove an asset. He is not quite as low-profile as he was when the weights were published, but he has been well supported for a reason. Progressive stayer Ride The Thunder, drawn alongside Saint Etienne, rates the main danger.
In the Plate consolation race, ST FAZ 12/1 (14:40 Newcastle) has reinvented himself on the Flat since moving from Gordon Elliott to Adrian Keatley. He racked up a sequence of wins on the AW in the spring but showed himself to still be competitive off this mark when placed at Thirsk last time. His stable is in good form, and he has both a forward-running style and a decent draw. He was behind Shrimp Shady at Chester but got little peace on the front end that day, and the Keatley yard performs very well at this time of year (42/283 career in June, A/E 1.31; 5/25, A/E 1.16 in 2026).
Away from the stayers, DILIGENT HARRY 4/1 (14:10 Newcastle) was given a blazing ride to win the Chipchase last season, benefiting from getting a break on the field up the near rail, which was a major advantage that day. It would be easy, therefore, to dismiss his chances of a repeat, but having looked very much an AW performer, his two turf runs this season suggest he may just be an improved horse this year. His draw in stall 10 means he can once again make for the rail, and whilst it may not be the same golden highway this year, it does complicate things for those behind trying to get a run if the whole field congregates on the near-side fence. Diligent Harry’s Lingfield dead heat in January was given a boost by Completely Random in the Wokingham, and he can make a bold bid to repeat last season’s victory.
Finally at Newcastle, POWER FIZZ 5/2 (15:45 Newcastle) looked well ahead of the handicapper when picking up smartly to win here in March. This is a deeper field, but he looks exactly the type the stable can place to advantage in the months to come. Largely campaigned over 7f, he may need to be ridden a little more prominently than last time over 6f against better opposition if the same track pattern as Thursday prevails, but he did make all over 7f at Ascot, so hopefully has the pace to secure a good position.
Away from Newcastle, FRANKIE’S DREAM 15/2 (13:55 York) looks the best bet on their card. He has put up a string of consistent efforts in recent starts, has a good record at the track (form figures 5-1-2), and his yard is in good form.
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