The most backed outcomes at the 2026 World Cup

Looking to place a bet on the latest World Cup odds, but unsure where to start? We’ve revealed who other bettors are backing across popular markets.

The World Cup is upon us, so we’ve crunched the numbers across three popular World Cup betting markets to determine the perceived-likeliest candidates to win the World Cup, win each group, and take home the Golden Boot.

The most backed teams to win the World Cup

Looking to bet on the World Cup tournament winner, but unsure which nation to back? Perhaps take a steer from how other football fans are approaching the decision: 

At the moment, Spain has the highest rate of the vote, with 13% of bettors backing La Roja to win the Euros and World Cup back-to-back– just like they did in 2008-2010. This should come as little surprise, considering Spain are ranked among the favourites to lift the trophy in July. What’s more, we can expect a strong showing from Lamine Yamal, who often shows quality beyond his years and is billed as one of the frontrunners across Golden Ball betting odds.

Next up, France is always in the conversation for contention, and 12% of bettors have backed Les Bleus to win Stateside. With back-to-back finals under their belt – including an agonising defeat on penalties last time out – Kylian Mbappe and co. will be hungry to add another star to their crest.

Meanwhile, a Portugal team including Cristiano Ronaldo has 11% of the vote, with only marginally fewer people thinking they’ll go all the way than Spain and France. If you’re not so sure, you might be tempted by their odds of reaching the semi-final 2000/1000 or final 4/1 , instead.

Next up, one-in-ten bettors is backing the Three Lions to bring it home this year, after 60 years of hurt. England have reached two finals and a semi in their last four major tournaments, so they’re certainly capable of getting to the business end of the competition. A foreign coach has never won the World Cup before – can Tuchel be the first? If you’re not quite sure about England, perhaps consider their odds of a semi-final 1600/1000 or final 2800/1000 appearance.

As we move down the list, 8% of bettors are backing Lionel Messi and Argentina to go two for two and win the 2026 World Cup next month. With much of this edition’s squad the same as 2022’s, the players know what it takes to go all the way. That said, if you’re unsure on their ability to win back-to-back, you might favour a bet on Argentina to reach the semi-final 1750/1000 or final 3500/1000 .

Finally, co-host Mexico have 5% of the vote (incidentally, this is more than Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands). While they’re perhaps an outside pick vs the others on our list, home advantage has been important in previous tournaments (see: France ’98, Argentina ’78, Germany ’74, England ’66, Italy ’34, and Uruguay ’30). If you’re also convinced Mexico can capitalise on a local crowd, consider their odds of reaching the semi-final 11000/1000 or final 28/1 !

The most backed teams to win each group

We’ve looked at who bettors are backing to win the World Cup, but how about the teams fans are expecting to top their World Cup groups along the way?

See how each group ranks from ‘easiest’ to toughest in our article exploring the World Cup groups of death at the 2026 tournament.

The most backed player for the Golden Boot

Turning our attention to the top goalscorer award at the World Cup, who are bettors backing to win the Golden Boot?

Harry Kane has the strongest share of the vote among World Cup bettors, with 15% expecting him to win the World Cup Golden Boot for a second time. Following an exceptional 2025/26 season with Bayern Munich, which saw him net 61 times in 51 games, many are backing him to continue his fine form into the summer.

Next up, 13% of bettors think Kylian Mbappe will outscore everyone. He’s also already got one Golden Boot under his belt, after bagging eight times on France’s way to the final in 2022, so will be fully confident he can find the net a few more times this time out.

Finally, one-in-ten bettors back Julian Alvarez to take the title. While his odds are longer than the likes of Kane and Mbappe, if Argentina can get to another final he has every chance of topping up his tally along the way. If you’re not sure Alvarez has it in him to beat the rest, why not bet on him to be Argentina’s top goalscorer – with odds of 3/1 – instead?

So, there we have it – the best-backed outcomes at the 2026 World Cup! If you’re still a little unsure where to cast your vote, why not explore even more insight from our experts over on our World Cup blog?