The horse racing broadcaster offers up his five best bets for Saturday's racing at Haydock, Kempton and Ascot.
Wildly differing ground conditions across the three venues that make up the ITV nine race coverage on Saturday.
I am writing this from Haydock on Friday morning where over an inch of rain overnight on Thursday has seen the ground change to heavy. The other key point to note is that due to the issues surrounding the hole that appeared earlier on in the season, the same Inner course will be used on Saturday, whereas in previous seasons the card has been on fresh ground on the Outer track. This will likely remove the golden highway that has sometimes been a factor under the stands rail on the Outer course, but the ground will now have been turned over by two previous days’ racing so everyone will likely be looking for the ground least trodden by that point.
KIND OF BLUE 7/2 (15:40 Haydock) appeals as the winner of a smaller field than usual for the feature race, the Group 1 Sprint Cup. Runner-up to Big Mojo last year on ground that rode faster than the official good, the rain should really suit him, and his yard is in good nick. He ran well on his return at York before looking to find the ground too lively at Royal Ascot. Kind of Blue’s biggest career win came on soft at Ascot on Champions Day, and the yard are 10/43 since the beginning of August (A/E 1.44).
The opening race can see HANKELOW 5/1 (13:25 Haydock) leave his York form behind. He was too close to a strong pace that day and that coupled with the longer trip meant he did not last home. He is a strong powerful individual and well equipped to cope with this ground whilst his handy run style should prove more of an asset here where it can be tough to make ground. It is his first time back at a mile since his excellent third in the French 2000 Guineas to Rayif and he could prove hard to get by here.
The feature handicap on the card is the Old Borough Cup and here it could be worth taking a chance on one of the current outsiders IN THE BREEZE 14/1 (EW) (15:05 Haydock) with Henrietta Knight having her first flat runner at the track in over 25 years. Connections may have had jumping on their mind when moving In The Breeze to the yard but a win at Thirsk seems to have prompted a more prolonged flat campaign which also yielded a victory at Goodwood over 2m on soft ground. With this race likely to turn into a slog, the proven stamina of In The Breeze is a major plus and the price at the time of writing looks too large.
Away from Haydock the focus will be on the return of Constitution Hill in the September Stakes at Kempton. This Group 3 represents a significantly tougher task than his Southwell and Kempton novice race victories and he actually has the lowest official flat rating in the field. He has however never had the chance to run in a race where that figure could be much higher, and so with question marks over some of his rivals and it being difficult to gauge his Flat ability it is a race to watch rather than bet in. Certainly, his appearance will add a lot of interest and swell the crowd at the Sunbury track which needs a boost given the axe currently hanging over its head.
A more attractive bet could be TWO TEMPTING 11/1 (14:20 Kempton) in the Mile final. He is well drawn and has a touch of class which can see him give weight all round. He shaped as if in need of the run after an absence at Goodwood but gave the impression at Chester last time that he was coming to hand. He placed off 100 on his last AW run at Wolves and won over this CD off 2lb lower in November of last year. His last six all-weather runs read 213233 and the return to an artificial surface looks likely to aid his chances.
Best bet of the day at Ascot looks to be THUNDER CALL 11/10 (13:40 Ascot) in the 7f handicap. He failed to reel in old adversary Red Spells Danger on Shergar Cup day, looking as if a step up to 7f would see him in even better light. He has solid form since moving into handicaps and he looks more progressive than his older rivals who he takes on for the first time.
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