England, Belgium and the United States headline today’s knockout slate, with value plays, player props and upset angles for bettors
As Toronto prepares for tomorrow’s World Cup celebration and a blockbuster Round of 32 showdown between Portugal and Croatia, featuring what could be the final World Cup appearances for Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modrić, bettors have three intriguing matches to wager on today.
Yesterday had its share of drama – Erling Haaland striking late to send Norway to the Round of 16, with a 2-1 win over upstart Ivory Coast, the dominance of Kylian Mbappé, with two markers as France handled Sweden with ease, 3-0, and Mexico with an electrifying start at Azteca Stadium, after a thunderstorm delayed the start of the match, taking out Ecuador 2-0.
If England beats Congo DR, that’s where they head for their Round of 16 match, to take on a Mexico team with an unblemished record so far in the tournament.
A good day yesterday on the betting front, scoring on Over 2.5 Total Goals in Norway-Ivory Coast, Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer, and Mexico to Win, with the Under 2.5.
Today some big fish play their Round of 32 matches:
England versus Congo DR, 12 p.m. EST, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia. In World Cup betting at Betway this morning, England is the favorite, at -350, with Congo DR at +1100, and odds for a draw at +400.
England won their group, while Congo was the best-ranked of the third-placed sides, but we’re in a World Cup that has seen a ton of upsets.
Panama just took out Germany on penalties. Morocco did the same thing, against Netherlands. Brazil and Norway escaped their matches by inches, against underdogs.
“It’s just narrow margins,” said England manager Thomas Tuchel. “It’s tight football matches, and it helps us not to over-expect.”
Congo held Portugal to a draw in group play, so they are the real deal. But an upset today?
No – but that England moneyline is also too expensive.
England should win, but it should be tighter than people expect. Feels like England 2-0 – so go Under 2.5 Total Goals at Betway, at -125. England Win to Nil (Yes) is -138.
Belgium versus Senegal, 4 p.m. EST, Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington. Tight on the betting front – Belgium +115, Senegal +250, Draw +220.
Belgium topped Group G with a 5-1 win over New Zealand after earlier draws, with an attack led by Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Jeremy Doku, with De Bruyne dictating the tempo. Lukaku is a finisher, which is why I like him today for Anytime Goalscorer at +150. De Bruyne Anytime Goalscorer is +260.
This is going to be a tight, cagey, tactical knockout match, a great watch, but you have to lean Belgium star power and momentum off that big New Zealand to win. Go with the player props with Belgium to win.
Or, if you’re looking for a high-risk, plus-money sprinkle, consider a parlay of Belgium to win, Romelu Lukaku to score, and Under 2.5 Total Goals (+1000). Pair it with a stand-alone bet on Belgium to win if you’re looking for a more conservative play.
United States versus Bosnia-Herzegovina, 8 p.m. EST, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California. The Americans are favored at Betway, at -267, with Bosnia- Herzegovina at +700, the draw at +375.
The best for last today? Bosnia-Herzegovina has some bulletin board material going in – disparaging remarks about their nation by some ignorant teleprompter-reading American reporter, and warnings by former U.S. goalkeeper Tim Howard that the team was in for a reality check.
The team though has already lived through a match with the weight of an entire nation against them – the opening draw with Canada, in Toronto. Bosnia coach Sergej Barbarez said shallow social media takes have no impact on his squad.
That’s good, and the U.S., under Mauricio Pochettino, aren’t taking them for granted, despite being the favorites.
Pochettino has been right to point out the number of upsets so far in the tournament, especially Germany.
For bettors, talisman Christian Pulisic has declared himself fit to start for the U.S. after playing off the bench in the 3-2 loss to Turkey, however centre back Mark McKenzie has been all but ruled out with a foot injury. Left back Auston Trusty, who rolled an ankle against Turkey, might be available off the bench, Pochettino said.
Still, the U.S. to win is the strongest play this morning, with the home advantage, superior squad depth, and group form. I also like the Over 2.5 Total Goals, at -143, and Pulisic to make a statement and score is +115. Folarin Balogun remains the team’s primary finishing threat – he’s +105 Anytime Goalscorer.
