Spain's midfield, defensive discipline and betting value could matter more than emotion as bettors weigh a razor-thin World Cup final
If sports were a true form of entertainment, a Lifetime channel movie would have Lionel Messi end his vaunted 20-year World Cup career tomorrow, with him and his Argentina teammates defeating Spain in the final and hoisting the FIFA World Cup Trophy.
Messi is tied with France’s Kylian Mbappe for the Golden Boot, as well, each with eight goals, and Mbappe’s team is going up against England in the quarterfinal today. So, any movie would also feature Messi taking home that trophy.
But sports aren’t that way. This is about as evenly matched a World Cup final as one could have hoped for, both squads healthy going in. Now you have an air quality factor as well, from those Northern Ontario forest fires, a blanket of smoke that has drifted over the northeastern U.S.
The odds certainly bear that out.
France plays England today at 5 p.m. EST at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. In World Cup betting on the third-place match at Betway, France is the -134 favorite, with England at +225 and the draw at +300.
Tomorrow’s Spain-Argentina final kicks off at 3 p.m. EST at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The odds are tight, with Spain at +125, Argentina at +250 and the draw at +200.
The questions sports bettors need to weigh a day out in part focuses on Messi – does he have one more magical performance at 39 years of age? He’s been producing decisive moments all tournament. And it’s true – one piece of brilliance can decide a final game like this, not overall dominance.
Spain has been one of the tournament’s best possession teams, at 63%. Can their midfield, led by Rodri, control possession and give them the edge? Or can Argentina disrupt their rhythm there, with an aggressive press and quick transitions? No way Spain lays back and lets Argentina come to them, like England did in the semifinal, a coaching tactic that lost England the game, with two Argentina goals after the 85th minute.
Spain has conceded very little all tournament, a defensive consistency that has them down as the betting favourite. This is also going to be a very cautious affair, which brings the Under more into play. Both teams know one mistake can decide the championship.
Also, many bettors focus on the 90-minute moneyline. Bettors can’t ignore extra time and penalties in an evenly matched final like this one.
Overall, looking at it, how much of the betting handle will be driven by emotion surrounding the Messi story, and how much will be driven by underlying numbers.
I am going to lean Spain to Score, 1st half (+115), since the Argentina back line has shown leaks. The objective for Spain would be to strike in the first half, then squeeze the life out of the Argentinians with their possession game and defensive acumen.
So, Spain to Win, and Both Teams to Score (Yes, -110), since there’s no way Argentina gets shut out in Messi’s swan song. Messi Anytime Goalscorer is +140 at Betway, since he’ll want to lead his team to a championship and score the Golden Boot.
Finally, Messi 1+ Assists (+350), as a backup if he doesn’t score, since I’m still thinking back on that wonderful cross over multiple players against England that landed exactly on Lautaro Martinez’s head for the winner.
It’s been a fantastic tournament. Enjoy the final!
