Our NFL Week 1 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections
Last night’s first game of the NFL season is in the books: a 13-10 Seattle Seahawks win over the New England Patriots, a game that was sealed by a disastrous Drake Maye interception in the final seconds, his third of the game, and marked by a hip injury suffered by Seahawks’ quarterback Sam Darnold in Seattle’s first series on offence.
All eyes are on Darnold this morning, set to undergo an MRI on the hip. The good news, according to ESPN, is that the hip isn’t broken.
Those of us who backed Seattle at -3.5 were left shaking our heads after an early twist of fate took the home crowd out of the game. The Seahawks’ defence eventually took control, shutting down Maye and the Patriots in the second half.
That development also strengthened the case for the under at 44.5.
Next up are the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers in Australia. Kickoff is tonight at 8:35 p.m. EDT—Friday morning in Melbourne—ahead of Sunday’s full slate of games and the Monday night finale.
That leads me to my NFL Week 1 picks against the spread.
NFL Week 1 Betting Landscape
Lots of intrigue heading into Week 1, especially around the quarterback movement. Aaron Rodgers is back for one more season and a new offence in Pittsburgh. Tua Tagovailoa is starting for Atlanta. Kirk Cousins is starting for Las Vegas. Kyler Murray takes over in Minnesota.
Several prominent rookies are debuting around the NFL, although No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza starts behind Cousins with the Raiders.
NFL Week 1 Betting Trends
Bettors who fade expectations have typically been rewarded in Week 1, when it comes to point spreads anyway. According to SportsOddsHistory.com, when talking about season openers, at least seven underdogs have cashed Week 1 tickets ATS for 18 consecutive seasons.
NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread
Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
A classic fade-the-dog scenario, with the Jags comfortably covering at home against the Browns. Jacksonville was a league-best 12-5 ATS last year during the regular season – even more proficient at home. Cleveland went 2-6 ATS on the road, second-worst in the league.
There are question marks about what the Browns truly have with Deshaun Watson, coming back after a long layoff with an Achilles injury, and plenty of doubters. His mobility, pocket awareness and timing are big unknowns.
The Browns are starting a completely restructured offensive line, including a rookie in Spencer Fano at left tackle. Fano will be lining up across from Josh Hines-Allen, Jacksonville’s best pass rusher, a two-time Pro Bowler.
Houston Texans +1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Bills are slight favourites, which feels more like the Josh Allen effect. The Texans had the NFL’s top defence last season, with 277.2 yards allowed per game. They are on home field for this one.
In NFL betting at Betway, the game is essentially a pick’em. While I think Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL, there are question marks about the Bills’ defence going into the season.
One thing they reworked is their secondary, which means C.J. Stroud should have favourable opportunities.
Another thing – Texans’ starting right tackle Braden Smith is on injured reserve, meaning the offensive line will be exposed to Buffalo’s edge pressure, which is pretty good, led by Greg Rousseau (55 pressures last season) and Bradley Chubb (8.5 sacks, 20 QB hits and 48 pressures in Miami last season).
Houston getting 1.5 points at home is one of the weekend’s stronger underdog plays. Tough opening for the Bills, who have to go to Houston for this one, then dash back to Buffalo for the home opener against the Detroit Lions Thursday night.
Miami Dolphins +3.5 vs Las Vegas Raiders
I looked at this after reading yesterday that Raiders tight end Brock Bowers underwent knee surgery and will be out for a few weeks.
Bowers is the Raiders’ best weapon on offence, quarterback Kirk Cousins’ primary target, so that puts more pressure on new Raiders’ coach Klint Kubiak and the offence there.
Yes, the Raiders are at home, but they have an inexperienced receiver group, a new offensive system, and starting running back Ashton Jeanty is returning from an ankle injury.
Miami isn’t a powerhouse, but getting more than a field goal is worth it.
Denver Broncos +2.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos have been getting a lot of action as a Super Bowl futures darling, with Bo Nix back and respect for coach Sean Payton.
I would take +3 enthusiastically, but with my NFL betting picks I’ll still lean +2.5 (definitely not +2 or lower), since the big unknown here is how the Chiefs will look under quarterback Patrick Mahomes, coming back just nine months after ACL and MCL surgery.
Remember, even before Mahomes got hurt last December, the Chiefs weren’t exactly setting the world on fire.
Denver swept the Chiefs last season and has the better defence and a more settled roster. I think they win outright, but I’ll take the +2.5 with a thank-you attached.
Sunday NFL Week 1 Parlay Picks
A clean two-leg parlay is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 in Cincinnati against the Bengals with the Atlanta Falcons +3.5 against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Bucs have a strong Week 1 covering streak going into what should be a close, competitive game. Pittsburgh is being asked to win by four in a game that could be close and low-scoring, especially if Atlanta can reduce Tua Tagovailoa’s exposure to Pittsburgh’s pass rush.
Rodgers is entering his final season, and the Steelers have replaced Mike Tomlin with Mike McCarthy; they’re making changes. Laying more than a field goal is a reach.
That ATS parlay is a healthy +256 at Betway.
