Friday’s World Cup picks feature Egypt draw no bet, Argentina-Cape Verde totals, and plus-money Colombia player props
Toronto Stadium hosted its final World Cup match last night, an epic 2-1 Portugal win over Croatia, that will go down as one of the city’s most memorable sporting events — and not just for the 43,000 plus soccer fans in attendance.
It was a thrilling, two-hour drama fest, probably the best match of the tournament, they were saying on ESPN last night, that featured three disallowed goals from offside rulings. That’s how intense it was, a back-and-forth Round of 32 battle between two European soccer giants, with two individual titans of the game in their last World Cup tournament, Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric.
The game stats told the tale – Portugal 60% possession, Croatia 40%; Portugal 15 shots on goal, Croatia 13; Portugal 532 passes completed, Croatia 311; Portugal 2.18 expected goals, Croatia 1.34.
Goncalo Ramos’ brilliant header was the winner in stoppage time, after he had replaced Ronaldo (who had tied the game on a penalty kick) at the top of Portugal’s attack, at the 81st minute.
VAR called back what looked like the tying goal by Croatia, in the final minute of stoppage time, the correct call, but still shattering for the Croatia players, who seconds before were embracing and jumping as Croatian fans behind the goal in the west of the stadium were losing their minds.
Bravo, and one that will be hard to emulate as the Round of 32, and the rest of the World Cup, plays out. A good night last night on the betting end, as I scored in all three matches. Today is more challenging, though.
Australia faces Egypt at 2 p.m. EST at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. In World Cup betting at Betway, Egypt is the +130 favorite, with Australia at +250 and the draw priced at +180.
There is value in that +130 for Egypt if Mohamed Salah is available and Egypt controls the tempo. Salah is recovering from a hamstring injury that forced him off during the group stage. He could return to the starting lineup but that isn’t for certain. Head coach Hossam Hassan said that final decision will be made closer to kick off.
Neither team has ever won a World Cup knockout game. It’s going to be a tight, physical, cautious affair. I am leaning Egypt Draw No Bet (-175 at Betway), even the Under 2.5 Total Goals (-211).
Argentina versus Cape Verde, 6 p.m. EST, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida. Argentina is the big favorite at -700, Cape Verde is at +1600, and the draw is priced at +750.
Cape Verde is the ultimate Cinderella story, the smallest country to ever reach the knockout rounds. They were unbeaten in the group stage, with three draws, including a shocking 0-0 result against Spain. Argentina are the defending champs, and are +450, after France at +200, to win the tournament, but they haven’t been blowing anyone out.
Argentina wins, but I will bet Under 2.5 Total Goals (+125), even Under 3.5 (-188), since Cape Verde has been sitting deep, and are organized defensively.
And Lionel Messi Anytime Goalscorer (-250), since he’s been in form, even at 39, and co-leads the tournament in goals, with six.
Colombia takes on Ghana at 9:30 p.m. EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Colombia is a strong betting favorite at -236, while Ghana is +700 and the draw is priced at +320.
Colombia (Group K winners, unbeaten) are the favorites against a resilient Ghana team. Ghana coach Carlos Queiroz used to manage Colombia, so he is motivated to prove a point. Ghana has a key injury to contend with, on their backline – Kojo Oppong Peprah, a centre back, is out with an injury. Manchester City Antoine Semenyo, a key counter-attacking threat, is fit, though.
Colombia has no major injuries to report.
Colombia to win is the strongest single bet, given its superior attacking profile, led by Luis Díaz’s pace and one-on-one ability, James Rodríguez’s passing and set-piece delivery, and fullbacks Daniel Muñoz and Johan Mojica pushing forward. On the plus-money player prop side, I’m also leaning Díaz Anytime Goalscorer (+140), Díaz 2+ Shots on Target (+180), and Rodríguez 1+ Assist (+220).
