Canada aims for an upset against Morocco, while France looks poised to advance as bettors eye goals, clean sheets and player props
Canada already has exceeded expectations in the World Cup, advancing through the Round of 32, with last weekend’s injury time goal by Stephen Eustaquio to push them past South Africa and into today’s Round of 16 match against Morocco.
With respect to South Africa, though, that team ranks 54th in world according to FIFA. Morocco ranked sixth, far more accomplished and experienced, semi-finalists in 2022, and reigning African Cup of Nations.
This is by far the greatest challenge Canada has faced to date.
Today’s match is 1 p.m. EST, at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. In World Cup betting at Betway this morning, Morocco is -138, Canada +425, with the draw priced at +240.
Canada to win is a tall order – unless you are counting on more of an impact from key players like captain Alphonso Davies, who, working his way back from a hamstring injury, played 15 minutes against South Africa. That was Davies’ World Cup debut.
Those watching the game, though, saw the impact Davies had right away, the Bayern Munich star deftly orchestrating two scoring chances, showing no rust. The last time he had played a men’s national game was March 2025, in the Concacaf Nations League finals, when he tore his ACL.
Canada’s attacks had come from the right and down the middle. Now South Africa had to shift their focus to the left side, to contain Davies.
Canada has looked dangerous in transition but only scored one goal in three of their four World Cup matches – the six they tallied against lowly Qatar being the exception. Morocco is elite, unbeaten through the tournament, but needed a penalty shootout to take out Netherlands in their Round of 32 match on Monday.
“This is where we expect to be and this is where we want to be, and we know that Morocco is going to challenge every single thing we do and this is a team that has literally zero weaknesses,” Canada coach Jesse Marsch said yesterday, per Reuters.
“Preparing for Morocco is like a gory, horrible nightmare. It’s like, I don’t want to watch them play. They’re too good.”
That all starts with trying to stop Ismael Saibari, the attacking midfielder who scored in all three group play matches.
All Marsch said about Davies was that he would be available. How and where he is used is anyone’s guess.
For bettors, though, anything can happen in a knockout match.
My heart is with Canada, but my brain is with Morocco. For bettors looking for a higher payout, Morocco to Win and Both Teams to Score — Yes — is an intriguing option at +320 at Betway.
Both Teams to Score — Yes — was +100 this morning at Betway, and I think that’s the best play on the board. Morocco has too much attacking quality with Ismael Saibari, Achraf Hakimi and Soufiane Rahimi, but don’t sleep on Canada’s Jonathan David, who has three goals in the tournament, Cyle Larin, who has two, or Stephen Eustaquio.
Saibari Anytime Goalscorer is +162, while David is +280. David is a strong play here, too, since he’s Canada’s primary finisher, consistently finds dangerous positions in the box, and has put together a strong tournament.
That said, with an expectation for goals, Over 2.5 Total Goals at +115 is worth a look as well. Morocco plays an aggressive style, but Canada has shown it can attack against quality opponents.
In the other knockout match today, Paraguay plays France, 5 p.m. EST, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
France is the big betting favorite at Betway, at -550, with Paraguay +1200, and the draw priced at +600.
Kylian Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer is -223, but my favorite bet is France to Win to Nil at -134. France should control possession and territory against a Paraguay side that barely escaped Germany, advancing only after a penalty shootout. France was dominant defensively in its 3-0 Round of 32 win over Sweden, making a clean sheet a strong possibility.
