Three knockout matches headline today’s World Cup slate, with Brazil-Japan, Germany-Paraguay, and Netherlands-Morocco offering bettors plenty to consider
Canada is buzzing after yesterday’s late game, 1-0 win over South Africa, in front of over 69,000 fans at SoFi Stadium in California, the first match of the World Cup Round of 32.
Stephen Eustáquio, from Leamington, Ontario, who actually plays for Los Angeles FC in MLS, punched in a shot from outside the penalty area, just inside the bottom corner, in the second minute of second-half stoppage time, and a nation went wild.
“You guys are Canadian heroes!” Canada coach Jesse Marsch told his players after the match.
This is new territory for Canada as a soccer nation – off to the Round of 16.
And how much of a lift was it having star defender Alphonso Davies off the bench, after that hamstring injury – before that an ACL injury – his first appearance for the Canadian national team since March 2025? Even for 15 minutes, his pace and talent stretched the South Africa defence.
A good day on the betting front – Total Goals under 1.5 at Betway and Canada Win to Nil both scored for me.
Today brings three Round of 32 knockout matches, with Brazil facing Japan, Germany taking on Paraguay, and the Netherlands meeting Morocco as the World Cup knockout stage continues.
Brazil versus Japan, 1 p.m. EST, NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas. In World Cup betting at Betway, Brazil is betting favorite, at -134, with Japan at +375, and odds for a draw for +260.
Brazil should advance, after topping Group C with solid performances, while Japan advanced as a runner-up. The Japanese are disciplined, but Brazil is too deep.
So, I am taking Brazil to win, since they’ve looked increasingly sharp as the tournament went on. I am looking at Over 2.5 Total Goals as well, looking at how freely Brazil scored during the group stage, totaling seven goals. Japan had seven goals as during the group stage.
Vinicius Junior has also been a standout for the Brazilians – four goals in the tournament – so Anytime Goalscorer for him (+150) is a good play, if Brazil dominates possession. Vini can punish teams on the flanks/transition.
Germany versus Paraguay, 4:30 p.m. EST, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts. Germany are the big betting favorites here, at -286, with Paraguay at +750, and odds for a draw at +375.
The South Americans are competing in their first World Cup in 16 years against a team that’s going into the match feeling a little cautious. After crushing Curacao 7-1 in the group play opener, the Germans had to eke out a last minute, come-from-behind 2-1 win over Ivory Coast in Toronto, then lost to Ecuador 2-1.
The four-time world champion Germans have star power in strikers like Kai Havertz and midfielder Jamal Musiala, and Deniz Undav has been one of the surprise stars of the World Cup so far, off the bench, with three goals, setting up two more, including both goals in that Toronto game.
Was that Ecuador loss, which snapped a 12-game win streak, cause for alarm bells, for a fanbase and bettors that remember first-round exits in the 2018 and 2022 World Cups?
Head coach Julian Nagelsmann has been criticized for lineup decisions, including not starting Undav. Germany – this morning +2000 to win the World Cup at Betway – finished at the top of Group E, while Paraguay advanced as one of the eight-best third-place finishers.
My favourite play is a two-leg same-game parlay at Betway: Germany to win and Under 3.5 Total Goals (+105). Paraguay’s compact defensive setup should frustrate Germany long enough to keep this match within three goals, even if the Germans advance comfortably.
I think this is a reasonable plus-money play, especially for a knockout match (often more cautious than group-stage games). Paraguay’s best hope is to defend deep and try to stay in the match as long as possible.
Netherlands versus Morocco, 9 p.m. EST, Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico. At Betway, the Netherlands are +120, Morocco are +240, and the draw is +200.
Canada sits back, ready to take on the winner of this one.
The Atlas Lions were impressive during the group stage, earning seven points from matches against Brazil, Scotland and Haiti, finishing second in Group C.
According to Reuters reporting, Morocco coach Nabil Ouahbi has carefully managed player workloads ahead of the knockout rounds, spreading minutes across the squad. In the group stage, Morocco looked like a more complete team, holding Brazil to a 1-1 draw, grinding out a controlled 1-0 win over Scotland, then overcoming an early scare to beat Haiti 4-2 and book their knockout-stage place.
Netherlands topped Group F with attacking flair (10 goals, including big wins over Sweden and Tunisia), led by Cody Gakpo and Brian Bobbey.
I think the Draw in 90 Minutes (+200) is the best value on the board. The Netherlands have the edge going forward, but Morocco have been one of the tournament’s most organized teams, defending well, threatening on the counterattack and proving difficult to break down.
I also like Under 2.5 Total Goals (-150). If you’re looking for a little more value, Both Teams To Score (Yes) at -110 is worth a look.
