Brazil-Norway and Mexico-England offer intriguing betting value, with player props, parlays and knockout-round strategy leading today's card
Yesterday I cashed France to Win to Nil, with France dominating Paraguay in a 1-0 victory, controlling 76% of the possession compared to just 24% for Paraguay.
Canada versus Morocco? Not so much. I expected goals, backing Over 2.5 Goals at +115 and Both Teams to Score at +100.
Canada coach Jesse Marsch told reporters after his team lost 3-0 yesterday, eliminating them from the World Cup, that they were the better team.
But you can’t win if you can’t score, and while Canada was the better team in the first half, the second half was a different story.
Stats do support Marsch’s argument – 55% Morocco possession, 45% Canada. Morocco had four shots on goals, Canada with three. Morocco 0.82 expected goals, Canada 0.84. Big chances created – Morocco 2, Canada 1. Duels won – Morocco 59, Canada 54.
Queue the conspiracy theories about Marsch and his star player, Alphonso Davies, with Davies, nursing a hamstring injury, not able to play yesterday. Davies was forced to watch most of the tournament, except for 15 minutes in the Round of 32 match against South Africa.
“It’s an injury where you can’t take any risk,” Davies told reporters after yesterday’s match. “It’s something that is very delicate, with my game, a lot of speed, lot of running, it’s tough to give everything. I was doing my sprints and every time I took a step, I felt something. Mentally for me it was tough to sit and watch.”
Morocco is an elite team, ranked sixth in the world by FIFA, but having Davies in the starting lineup no question would have been a difference maker in that first half.
What would the game have looked like if Canada scored in that first half? Would they have come out looking stronger in the second half? Canada really needed a goal after dominating early on. It’s just unfortunate Davies was never healthy enough to get out there.
So on to 2030. Two Round of 16 matches are on the schedule today.
Brazil versus Norway, 4 p.m. EST, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey. In World Cup betting at Betway, Brazil is the favorite, at -134, with Norway at +350, and a draw priced at +260.
Best bets today: Brazil to Qualify (the safer play, at -267) and Over 2.5 Total Goals (+110). Erling Haaland 2+ Shots on Target (-106) is my favourite player prop, with the Norwegian striker on fire throughout the tournament. Vinícius Júnior Anytime Goalscorer (+125) is another play I like, given his ability to exploit defenders in transition and one-on-one situations.
Looking for a little more value? Try this three-leg parlay: Brazil to Qualify, Over 2.5 Total Goals and Haaland Anytime Goalscorer (+320 at Betway). Brazil has the stronger squad, but Norway has enough attacking quality to push the match deep into the second half – or even beyond 90 minutes. With Brazil committed to attacking and Haaland leading Norway’s offence, the matchup has the ingredients for goals at both ends.
Mexico versus England, 8 p.m. EST, Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, Mexico. On the betting front, it’s “tight, tight, tight”, as Breaking Bad’s Tuco used to say. England is +140, Mexico +200, with the draw priced at +210.
With Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland grabbing plenty of headlines for their stellar tournaments, my betting focus for what should be an epic Round of 16 clash in Mexico City turns to Harry Kane. England’s captain remains the Three Lions’ most reliable finisher, making Anytime Goalscorer (+150) and 2+ Shots on Target (+130) my favourite Kane plays.
I’m also leaning Both Teams to Score – Yes (+100). England must contend with the altitude and a hostile home crowd, while Mexico’s defence has been outstanding, remaining unbeaten through the tournament.
My favourite wager, though, is this three-leg parlay: England to Qualify, Under 3.5 Total Goals and Kane Anytime Goalscorer (+333 at Betway).
Enjoy the matches!
