Germany aims to carry its momentum into the knockout stage while Ecuador battles for survival in a World Cup betting slate featuring six key group-stage matches
Germany (2-0-0) plays Ecuador (0-1-1) in one of today’s more interesting matches, since both squads are playing for something different.
Germany has wrapped up first place in Group E and booked a ticket to the Round of 32. Ecuador, though, has just one point through their first two matches, and must win to have a chance at advancing to the next stage.
Canadians were able to watch the Germans first-hand last Saturday at Toronto Stadium, when the German side was tied up by Ivory Coast for most of that contest, and needed a last-minute goal – albeit a brilliant one – by Deniz Undav, who came off the bench, to eke out a 2-1 win.
So, despite scoring nine goals in the tournament so far, they were lucky to get the win over Ivory Coast.
What team shows up today against the Ecuadorians? Germany manager Julian Nagelsmann has said he wants to keep the momentum going into the Group of 32, so they aren’t expected to rest starters today. Nico Schlotterbeck, their best defender, is out of the tournament with an ankle injury.
Ecuador lost 1-0 to Ivory Coast, and drew 0-0 with Curacao, despite generating 15 shots on goal, and 75% of possession time.
In today’s action: Curacao (0-1-1) plays Ivory Coast (1-0-1), 4 p.m. EST, in Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In World Cup betting at Betway this morning, Ivory Coast is the big betting favorite, at -600, with Curacao at +1200, and odds for a draw at +700.
Ivory Coast has been one of the surprise stories so far in the tournament and only needs a point today to secure second place in Group E. Curacao, though, needs to win today, to stay alive.
Coach Emerse Faé has preached focus and intensity, and he has a team that has bought in. I go back again to holding a powerhouse German team in check for most of that Saturday match.
There isn’t much value on the heavy -600 moneyline, so I’ll target Ivory Coast Under 2.5 Team Goals (+105). This projects as a controlled 2-0 victory.
Ecuador and Germany kick off at 4 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., with Germany a -188 favourite at Betway, while Ecuador and the draw are both listed at +375.
I am going to take Nagelsmann at his word and back Germany on the moneyline, largely because of their depth. Germany also moved up one spot to No. 9 in the FIFA rankings this morning. I like Under 2.5 Total Goals (+125), too. Ecuador hasn’t shown much attacking punch, and Germany doesn’t need to chase the game.
I also like Deniz Undav Anytime Goalscorer (+130), after his electric two-goal performance in Toronto last Saturday. Undav has been clinical on offence, with three goals through Germany’s first two matches.
Japan (1-1-0) versus Sweden (1-0-1), 7 p.m. EST, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas. Japan is the betting favorite, at -115, with Sweden at +300, and odds for a draw at +240.
Both sides have been involved in high-scoring games so far, with Japan putting up six goals in two matches, with Sweden giving up six in their two matches. Should be an open and entertaining match, so lean Over 2.5 Total Goals (-125).
Japan is a solid favorite at -115, while Sweden got crushed 5-1 by Netherlands in their last match.
Tunisia (0-0-2) versus Netherlands (1-1-0), 7 p.m. EST, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Netherlands is a massive -1100 favorite at Betway, with Tunisia at +2500, and odds for draw at +900.
Tunisia has been hammered in its first two matches, conceding nine goals, so I like Over 3.5 Total Goals (-106). If you’re looking for plus money, Netherlands Over 3.5 Team Goals (+140) is attractive, while Over 4.5 Team Goals (+320) is worth a sprinkle.
Paraguay (1-0-1) versus Australia (1-0-1), 10 p.m. EST, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California. Tight, tight, tight, if you’re betting. Paraguay at +150, Australia at +300, a draw at +130.
Qualification is on the line, with both teams at three points in Group D, behind the first-place Americans.
So, I expect a cautious, tight, physical game – maybe Under 2.5 Total Goals (-286). I am also leaning the draw. Australia advances with a point thanks to better goal difference, with +130 priced nicely. Australia can sit back, and counter.
Paraguay is missing Miguel Almirón for this one, due to suspension for covering his mouth during a confrontation with a Turkey player in a match Friday. Yes, you read that right.
And finally, USA (2-0-0) versus Turkey (0-0-2), 10 p.m. EST, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California. At Betway, USA is -118, Turkey +250, with odds of a draw at +300.
So, the market likes the USA, just not that much. The U.S. has already advanced, so they don’t have to go all in on this game.
Turkey has already been eliminated, so the question for USA manager Mauricio Pochettino is trickier – does he look to sit guys, or does he opt to keep up the momentum, like Germany’s Nagelsmann?
I don’t know, so my best bet is Under 2.5 Total Goals (+120).
