Defensive betting markets and player props offer the best value as analysts expect a low-scoring affair in California later this afternoon
The Canadian team is getting a huge boost ahead of their Round of 32 game against South Africa today in Southern California with the news that captain Alphonso Davies is fit for the match.
Canada coach Jesse Marsch made the announcement yesterday. No word on whether Davies starts. Davies, playing for FC Bayern Munich, has been recovering from a left hamstring injury picked up in Bayern Munich’s Champions League semi-final second leg against Paris Saint Germain in May.
“Now that we have Alphonso back and healthy and ready to perform, I think it’s a big moment for the team and a big boost for the team,” said Marsch, per Reuters.
Today’s match, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, starts at 3 p.m. EST.
In World Cup betting at Betway this morning, Canada is the betting favorite, at -154, with South Africa at +450. Odds for a draw are set at +260.
Canada’s group stage was a draw, win, then a loss. We’ll know today the size of the impact the team felt, with Moise Bombito and Davies out, as well as Ismael Kone, who suffered a gruesome leg injury in the group play win over Qatar, thinning out their midfield depth.
Davies massively improves Canada’s pace on the left flank and gives Marsh a dangerous option there. No one is questioning Canada’s high-press attacking ability, especially with Davies back in there, but defensive consistency is a concern going into the South Africa match.
Centre-back Bombito, who broke his leg last October playing for Nice, was also declared match fit. Yahoo reported that midfielder Stephen Eustáquio will undergo a late fitness check.
Canada played its three group play matches in Toronto and Vancouver, so this is their first match in the United States, and their first-ever Round of 32 match.
On the South Africa side, they are getting a key player back – midfielder Teboho Mokoena – who returns from suspension. He’ll make them tougher to play defensively.
South Africa plays a very tactical, compact, low-event style, scoring just twice in three World Cup matches.
Canada has firepower, led by strikers Jonathan David (three goals in the tournament) and Cyle Larin (two markers in three games), but how much do they press, knowing one mistake can end the tournament for Canada?
If Canada scores first, the script changes dramatically. South Africa is not an offence-first team. Forward Thapelo Maseko had one of the goals in the group stage, Mokoena the other. Not ideal when it comes to comeback firepower. This isn’t a team built to win 3-2 or 3-1.
Mokoena brings stability, yes, but South Africa likely needs to score first, score from a set piece, or get to penalties to pull off the upset over Canada.
Best bets? I think it’s going to be low scoring. Total Goals Under 1.5 at Betway this morning is +190.
I am looking at the health of Bombito, a strong tackler and one-on-one defender, with his ability to start attacks. The fact he is declared fit for the match means I like Canada Win to Nil a lot, +150 this morning at Betway.
Sprinkle a little on these props: Jonathan David Anytime Goalscorer (+150), as Canada’s clear attacking focal point, and David to record 2+ Shots on Target (+125).
Larin to record 1+ Shots on Target (-275) is another place to go – he complements David well as the other striker, getting into dangerous areas.
Leaning on Canada’s attackers makes a lot of sense today, since they are expected to control the match.
