World Cup Picks: Best Bets as Group Stage Qualification Race Heats Up

24 Jun | news | BY Mark Keast | MIN READ TIME |
World Cup Picks: Best Bets as Group Stage Qualification Race Heats Up

With Alphonso Davies available off the bench, Canada can lock down a Round of 32 berth with a win or draw today

Canada is back it today, with their final group-stage match against Switzerland in Vancouver, led by the news that captain Alphonso Davies is expected to make his return to the team.

Davies will not start but will likely make it in as a substitute, head coach Jesse Marsch confirmed. Davies has been nursing a hamstring injury.

A win or a draw against the Swiss today would lock down Group B for Canada and earn them a trip to a round-of-32 game back in Vancouver.

Switzerland is tied with Canada atop Group B, but Canada has the edge on goal differential after their 6-0 win last week over the Qataris. So for bettors, Canada can afford to be patient, while the Swiss may push more for a winner.

Keep an eye on Davies’ usage – Canada could become significantly more dangerous in the final 30 minutes if he comes off the bench, impacting live betting opportunities.

“I said when I took this job, we had a clear objective, we want to win the group,” said Marsch. “Two years ago, everybody thought I was crazy, that that prospect at the time wouldn’t be possible. This is where I expected us to be. Especially when we drew Switzerland, I said, OK, let’s position ourselves to make sure we are competing for our goal to stay in Vancouver in that last match. We are here and we’ll be ready for it.”

The state of England’s men’s soccer team is one of the other big World Cup talking points this morning, after the Three Lions failed to register a shot on target until the 57th minute in yesterday’s 0-0 draw with Ghana.

Harry Kane looked lost for most of the match. While England dominated possession (79%), they couldn’t convert that to chances, and while they sit atop of Group L with four points, tied with Ghana, there is much consternation in England’s camp.

In World Cup betting on Betway this morning, in the futures market, France is the favorite to win the World Cup, at +400, followed by Spain at +600, Argentina at +700, then England at +700, followed by Portugal at +1000.

Canada is +10000.

In the earlier match yesterday, Portugal took care of business, a 5-0 win over Uzbekistan, led by two goals by Cristiano Ronaldo. That shut down the critics, who were all over the team after their opening match 1-1 draw against Congo DR, including criticism of coach Roberto Martinez for sticking with the 41-yer-old Ronaldo.

Ronaldo made history yesterday by becoming the first player in history to score in six different World Cups.

In Group B action, Bosnia-Herzegovina (0-1-1) plays Qatar (0-1-1), today, 3 p.m. EST, at Lumen Field, in Seattle, Washington. At Betway, Bosnia-Herzegovina is -286, Qatar +600, with odds for a draw at +425.

Bosnia still has a chance to reach the knockout stage, but they have to win today. A draw or loss and they’re out. So plenty of motivation.

Qatar looked beaten down, even uninterested, standing around their net, in that 6-0 loss to Canada last week, so I’m taking Bosnia-Herzegovina to win, and Edin Dzeko Anytime Goalscorer, at -118.

Then Switzerland (1-1-0) plays Canada (1-1-0), 3 p.m. EST, BC Place, Vancouver. Odds on this one are very tight – Switzerland +130, Canada +230, and odds for a draw at +200.

I am leaning towards a draw in front of what should be a fired-up home crowd at BC Place. Both teams have looked sharp through two matches. Switzerland is the more experienced side (+6600 to win the tournament), but Canada’s attack is rolling after scoring six goals against Qatar.

Over 2.5 Total Goals at +100 at Betway is another market worth considering. Canada and Switzerland have combined for 12 goals through their first two matches, and both sides possess enough attacking talent to find the net.

Morocco (1-1-0) plays Haiti (0-0-2) at 6 pm. EST, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, in Group C action. With Haiti already eliminated from the tournament, Morocco is -550 at Betway, Haiti +1400 and a draw +600.

There isn’t much value on the Morocco moneyline, so Under 3.5 Total Goals (-167), Morocco Over 2.5 Total Goals (-110), and Morocco to Win to Nil (-138) are all worth considering

Scotland (1-0-1) plays Brazil (1-1-0), also at 6 p.m. EST, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. At Betway, Brazil is the big favorite, at -334, with Scotland at +800, and odds for a draw at +450.

You have to love the Scottish supporters. They’ve followed their team across North America throughout this World Cup, and while my heart would love to see Scotland pull off the upset, beating Brazil is a massive ask. Scotland simply doesn’t generate enough scoring chances against elite opposition.

The safest play is the Brazil moneyline at -334, but that’s a steep price. Instead, Brazil to Win to Nil (-110) offers better value. Under 2.5 Total Goals (+100) is also intriguing if you expect Scotland to keep things compact defensively and Brazil to grind it out.

Czechia (0-1-1) faces Mexico (2-0-0) at 9 p.m. ET at Estadio Banorte in Mexico City. Mexico is a -110 favorite, with Czechia at +260 and the draw at +280.

Mexico, in a narrow victory, since they’re already through as group winners, and have the home field (and altitude) advantage. Czechia needs a win to advance. That -110 moneyline for Mexico is pretty good value.

Finally, for today, South Africa (0-1-1) plays South Korea (1-0-1), 9 p.m. EST, at Estadio BBVA, in Guadalupe, Mexico. At Betway, South Korea is -167, South Africa +450, and the draw at +280.

South Korea has been impressive, beating Czechia and holding Mexico to a single goal in a narrow 1-0 defeat. South Africa sits last in Group A and has scored just once through two matches.

The value here is Under 2.5 Total Goals (-130) or South Korea to Win to Nil (+140).

 

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