Hurricanes favoured in Game 1, but bettors eye a tight, low-scoring battle as Vegas looks to steal home ice
Mitch Marner buzz overwhelmed Stanley Cup Media Day yesterday, mostly because a large chunk of the hockey media comes from Toronto.
Marner left after ten years a Leaf last summer, for sunny Nevada, where’s he’s now a Conn Smythe betting favourite (+175 at Betway, followed by Frederik Andersen at +225, and Taylor Hall at +600) going into Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final tonight between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Leafs didn’t trade Marner. They made him a competitive free agent contract offer to get him to stay longer term. Marner left voluntarily, after what had been a decade of playoff failure, and a steady stream of dart thrown his way by legacy media and social media, reflecting an intensely disgruntled fan base, after six decades of not making a Stanley Cup Final.
Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights have the made the Final three times now since they joined the NHL as an expansion team in 2017-18. Vegas won the Cup in 2023.
So, when Marner made a comment last week about the “dark times” he has gone through as a player, then tells the media throng yesterday he’ll expand on those comments if the Golden Knights win the Cup, that’s like tossing a nice Virginia Ham into a pool full of tiger sharks.
In the end, yesterday, at least in Toronto, there wasn’t as much talk about how the two teams match up going into Game 1.
BEST BETS
Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes, 8 p.m. EST, Lenovo Center, Raleigh, North Carolina
In NHL betting at Betway, the Hurricanes are Moneyline favourites at -150, the Golden Knights at +125. Carolina is -1.5 on the spread (+155), Vegas +1.5 (-200). The Over/Under is 5.5 (O -115, U -105).
Under 5.5 (-105).
I just don’t see a track meet tonight in Game 1. The Hurricanes absolutely suffocated a young, fast Montreal Canadiens team in the last series.
The Golden Knights, under head coach John Tortorella, who only came on board as coach March 29, have embraced a more disciplined defence-first system, which has paid enormous dividends in the playoffs, through three series.
Oh, and the goaltending. My money is on Marner to win the Conn Smythe because Andersen, while solid through the playoffs (12-1, .931 SV%, 1.41 GAA), has benefitted from that stifling Hurricanes defensive wall.
In the last series, the Habs had 12 shots on goal in Game 2, 13 shots on goal in Game 3. The Hurricanes are elite at protecting leads. Andersen is good when he needs to be.
Carter Hart on the other hand has been a bit of a revelation in Las Vegas, after being off the radar until Tortorella took over.
Hart (12-4, .924 SV%, 2.22 GAA) is +1200 in those Betway Conn Smythe Futures, but you’ll see him rise up in that odds list as this series progresses.
You might want to put a little sprinkle on Hart for MVP today.
Both teams play structured, low-event hockey in the playoffs, so expect a low-scoring affair tonight.
Carolina Hurricanes To Win (-150)
This one is the strongest, safest bet. It’s going to be a longer series, likely seven games, but the Hurricanes get off the mark and take Game 1, likely 3-2.
The Hurricanes have been the most dominating NHL playoff team, with a 12-1 post-season record, play an elite puck possession game, plus they’re on home ice.
Jackson Blake Over 0.5 Points (-140)
Blake has been great for the Hurricanes during the playoffs (5 goals, 10 assists in 13 playoff games), paired with Hall, generating 31 shots on goal, averaging more than two goals per game.
Blake is averaging nearly 19 minutes of ice time per game and is one of those guys who routinely wins races to the puck, creating opportunities for teammates. That’s why Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour throws him out there a lot.
