Vegas leads the Stanley Cup Final 2-1, but Carolina faces a must-win Game 4 as bettors weigh a tight moneyline and 5.5-goal total
Just three games in, and this Stanley Cup Final already ranks as the most entertaining in recent years, when you factor in comebacks, disallowed goals, storylines, and (sorry Leafs fans) Mitch Marner performances.
Heading into Game 4 tonight in Las Vegas (with the Golden Knights up 2-1 after Saturday’s 5-4 win in double overtime), the big question mark is who the Carolina Hurricanes turn to in goal.
Frederik Andersen was a legitimate Conn Smythe betting favourite mid-way through the last series against the Montreal Canadiens, but he’s dropped right off the odds chart at Betway.
Right now, Marner is the betting favorite for playoff MVP, at -250, followed by Taylor Hall at +550. It’s Marner’s to lose (28 playoff points, with a natural hat trick in Game 3).
But Andersen seems off – understandably, since Claude Lemieux, the former NHL player, who was also Andersen’s longtime agent and mentor, died by suicide May 28.
In Game 3, the Hurricanes pulled Andersen after two periods, after giving up four goals on 16 shots, with the Vegas Golden Knights up 4-0. Brandon Bussi was brought in, stopped 18-of-19 shots before the Golden Knights won in overtime. Bussi also stopped a Marner penalty shot.
As of last night, the Hurricanes hadn’t announced who will start in net tonight. Andersen didn’t practice yesterday because of a maintenance day.
Hurricanes’ coach Rod Brind’Amour did seem to indicate after Game 3 on Sunday that he will stick with Andersen. That’s where my money is.
BEST BETS
Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights, tonight, 8 p.m. EST, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
In NHL betting at Betway, it’s a pick’em on the moneyline, with both teams listed at -110. The Hurricanes are -1.5 on the puckline (+200), while the Golden Knights are +1.5 (-275). The total is 5.5 goals (Over -130, Under +110).
Golden Knights +1.5 (-275)
So those Betway odds suggest bookmakers believe a one-goal game is likely, which I agree with, watching how the series has played out.
The plus money on Carolina suggests how difficult it will be for them to win by two or more goals, despite the high scoring series, and the fact Golden Knights’ goalie Carter Hart has been a little leakier compared to the previous series.
The more expensive price on Vegas +1.5 suggests the Knights will keep the game close, even if they lose. That’s the safer play here.
Over 5.5 (-130)
I am going to stay on the offence train. Bettors are leaning towards a 6+ game, and with players like Marner and Hall putting on a show, I think they push beyond that lower total.
Betting markets expect a close game between two evenly matched teams. The Hurricanes were able to storm back in Game 3 with three goals in 39 seconds for a reason. These are two heavily stacked rosters.
Pavel Dorofeyev Over 0.5 Points (-120)
On the player prop end, this one has hit frequently, since Dorofeyev is a high-upside consistent offensive producer in what’s been a higher-scoring series.
He’ll get a bump from the home crowd energy and eclipse 0.5 points with ease.
I am also looking at Marner 2+ points (+165), coming off that huge Game 3. He and Mark Stone were over 27 minutes in ice time during the overtime game.
Marner is on a mission.
I also like Andrei Svechnikov over 0.5 points (-130). Svechnikov has five points in his last six playoff games and led the Hurricanes in ice time Saturday night, along with Seth Jarvis. He’s getting opportunities on the power play as well, and is in a good spot to contribute in a high-event road game tonight.
