The Knicks are one win from an NBA title, but the Spurs are desperate to force another game. Here's where the betting value may lie in Game 5
The sports world is still reeling from Wednesday night’s 107-106 New York Knicks win over the San Antonio Spurs in Game 4 of the NBA Final, the greatest comeback in NBA Finals history.
The Knicks were down 76-49 to the Spurs at the half. I must admit that’s when I checked out, only to wake up the next morning to find out what happened. I’m still kicking myself about it. I won’t make that mistake again.
The Knicks look to clinch the series tonight. Jalen Brunson led New York in Game 4 scoring, with 36 points, while Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs with 24.
David Jones Garcia, with that ankle injury, is out for the Spurs. Centre Luke Kornet is iffy for Game 5, with an illness, which would thin out the front depth behind Wembanyama, increasing his minutes load.
No injuries to report for the Knicks.
The Spurs are under big pressure, having blown that 29-point lead in Game 4. Still, the market respects them at home, expecting a bounce-back defensive effort. So do I – they’re young, but they’re learning fast, and I can’t help but think there will be a Knicks letdown after that emotional high in Game 4.
BEST BETS
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs, tonight, 8:30 p.m. EST, Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
In NBA betting at Betway, the Spurs are -190 moneyline favorites to keep their season alive, while the Knicks are +160 underdogs. San Antonio is -5.5 on the spread (+100), with New York +5.5 (-120). The total is set at 216.5 points, with both the Over and Under priced at -110.
San Antonio to Win (-190)
The market is fairly comfortable that the Spurs win tonight and we head back to Manhattan for Game 6 Tuesday night. Personally, I want to see this happen, so I can have a second shot at viewing a full game there, and make up for my Game 4 mistake, but also just to watch the spectacle of what that would represent – the Knicks on the cusp of winning their first NBA title since 1973, on home court.
The fact the Knicks are only getting 5.5 points despite facing a road elimination game shows how much bookmakers respect the Knicks.
So a Spurs win tonight, but not by a blowout, with the Knicks with a realistic chance of covering that spread.
Victor Wembanyama Under 15.5 Total Assists and Rebounds (-140)
Wembanyama often clears value in points and blocks, but this prop looks good because the Knicks game plan limits second-chance, easy rebounds, assists depend on teammates hitting shots, plus I am expecting shorter fourth-quarter minutes if the game swings, to save him for Game 6 back at the Garden.
Under 216.5 total points (-110)
This has been a low-scoring, defensive series (the Under has hit in three of four games). The Spurs will come with urgency, but thing will tighten up late, as fatigue sets in. The Knicks play a physical style, led by Hart, Anunoby and Bridges.
Also: Karl-Anthony Towns 15+ points (-200) look good, even 20+ points at +160, seeing some good opportunities versus the Spurs’ frontcourt, especially if Wembanyama has to play a lot and wears down, with Kornet out.
