Philadelphia's rise with the LeBron James’ signing and uncertainty around Kawhi Leonard hasn't shaken bookmakers
The NBA is into its quiet, vacation period, and that’s typically the time when speculation really heats up, good or bad, as content producers look to generate clicks.
A beauty came in today on X, on Kalshi Hoops, with someone theorizing that the Toronto Raptors should trade for Stephen Curry. Chatter picked up today that Curry was dissatisfied with where his Golden State Warriors sit competitively. And the Raptors, the theory went, needed to make a counter move in response to the Philadelphia 76ers signing free agent LeBron James on Friday.
The 76ers, coached by former Raptors head coach Nick Nurse, are now looking at an elite starting five that features Tyrese Maxey at PG, VJ Edgecombe at SG, SF Jaylen Brown, PF James and centre Joel Embiid.
More BS posts all day that Curry might be looking to leave Golden State after the team missed out on signing free agent LeBron James, acquiring Jaylen Brown, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Anthony Davis in trades.
Oddsmakers, thankfully, don’t deal in crazy.
Now comes actual journalism today, from Baxter Holmes at ESPN, reporting that the third-party NBA investigation into whether the LA Clippers circumvented the salary cap to pay superstar Kawhi Leonard could drag into 2027. That’s if everyone involved can’t agree on what the report found, and a settlement that would reportedly involve punishing the team.
We won’t get into the details of the investigation (the Clippers are alleged to have circumvented the cap by compensating Leonard through an endorsement deal he signed in 2022).
How this impacts sports betting, though, is massive. The Toronto Raptors announced a trade with the Clippers in late June to acquire Leonard in exchange for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, unprotected first-round draft picks in 2031 and 2033, a 2027 first-round pick exchange and two second-round draft picks. The Raptors won an NBA championship with Leonard in 2019.
The Raptors announced they were putting the trade on hold pending the results of the NBA investigation. But 2027? I don’t see them waiting for that, especially after Ingram has already been told he’s been traded. How do you reverse that, and how does Ingram come back to the Raptors when training camp starts in October?
Look at betting futures. In NBA betting at Betway, it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder at +250, San Antonio Spurs +250, New York Knicks +800, 76ers +900, Boston Celtics +1400, Denver Nuggets +2200, then the Raptors +2200.
Oddsmakers are clearly leaning toward the trade getting done, then the Raptors move up into the Celtics’ odds category.
I am going to put some money down on Raptors futures. I don’t see that trade getting scuttled, which puts a Raptors’ starting lineup of PG Immanuel Quickley, SG RJ Barrett, SF Leonard, PR Scottie Barnes, and centre Jakob Poeltl in play.
Assuming the trade happens, then the focus turns to Poeltl’s health, since back issues were the dominant storyline for his 2025-26 season.
Still, at +2200? I even like the Over on their regular-season wins (45.5) at -110 if the trade happens. A defence led by Barnes, Leonard and PF Collin Murray-Boyles is enticing.
The Raptors are +700 to win the Atlantic Division at Betway, and are -250 to make the playoffs.
