The Braves are rolling, the Astros are coming off a near no-hitter, and the Dodgers look to take down their cross-town rivals
It’s Victoria Day weekend in Canada, which means not only fireworks and barbecues, but it also means the NHL and NBA playoffs are heading into the Conference final rounds, CFL teams are getting ready for a new season, and NFL buzz is at a peak as the league releases the schedule for the upcoming regular season.
Major League Baseball also hit the quarter-mark in its schedule, a good time to reflect on some of the major storylines that are impacting betting in a big way:
Toronto Blue Jays stumble badly (+2200 to win the World Series at Betway). Yesterday news broke that pitcher Jose Berrios will undergo surgery on his elbow and will be gone a minimum a few months, and a maximum of over a year. They won’t know under doctors get in there.
Berrios has been on the injury list all season, along with pitchers Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce, and more recently Max Scherzer, catcher Alejandro Kirk, outfielders Addison Barger, Anthony Santander, Nathan Lukes, relief pitcher Yimi Garcia.
Injuries plus hitters not hitting have been the storylines, with the Jays 20-25, 9.5 games out of first in the American League East, with last Fall’s World Series run more of a distant memory.
The Atlanta Braves have bounced back (+1000). After falling to 76 wins last season, there was nowhere to go but up. No one expected one of MLB’s best records and run differentials (+91), though, tops in the league in team batting average (.265), RBIs, with 237, hits, with 418, and earned run average (2.99).
Big market underachievers. One of the dominant early storylines has been the struggles of big budget teams like the New York Mets (19-26, +4000) and the Philadelphia Phillies (23-23, +2200).
The Chicago White Sox are dominant again (+20000). Buried at the bottom of the MLB standings for years, the White Sox are competitive again, above .500 for the first time since 2023 (23-22), buoyed by a renewed clubhouse confidence, improved pitching and timely hitting.
Dodgers’ dominance (+185). Back in first place in the NL West, at 28-18, with a run differential of +85, the Dodgers are on a path to a third World Series title in a row.
BEST BETS TODAY
Boston Red Sox (19-26, 11-12 away) at Atlanta Braves (31-15, 15-8 home), 1:35 p.m. EST, Truist Park
In MLB betting, the Braves are Moneyline favourites at -160, the Red Sox at +130, with the spread Braves -1.5 (+125), the Red Sox +1.5 (-165). The Over/Under is 8.5 (O -120, U +100).
Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-160)
The Braves are one of MLB’s most complete teams, just elite both offensively and on the mound. The Red Sox, mired in last place in the AL East, send out righthander Brayan Bello (2-4, 6.46 ERA, 1.74 WHIP) against Grant Holmes for the Braves (2-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).
Miami Marlins (21-25, 7-13 away) at Tampa Bay Rays (29-15, 15-5 home), 12:15 p.m. EST, Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
In MLB betting, the Rays are Moneyline favourites at -165, the Marlins at +135, with the spread Rays -1.5 (+125), the Marlins +1.5 (-165). The Over/Under is 7.5 (O +100, U -120).
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+125)
The Rays are cruising, first place in the AL East by two games, and have righty Drew Rasmussen on the mound today (3-1, 3.16 ERA, 0.91 WHIP). The Marlins are 5-5 in their last ten. Strong edge on the Rays, facing Eury Perez (2-5, 4.94 ERA). The Marlins have lost the last four games he has started.
Texas Rangers (21-24, 10-14 away) at Houston Astros (19-28,12-13 home), 2:10 p.m. EST, Daikin Park, Houston
The Rangers are Moneyline favourites at -120, the Astros at +100. ATS, the Rangers are -1.5 (+135), the Astros +1.5 (-180). The Over/Under is 8.5 (O -105, U -115).
Under 8.5 runs (-115)
Spencer Arrighetti nearly threw a no-hitter for the Astros Friday night (7.1 IP, one hit, 5 Ks), so is that a sign the Astros pitching staff, last in the league in ERA, can build on that? Today the Astros start Peter Lambert (2-3, 2.76 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). The Rangers are on a three-game road skid and have struggled offensively (.228 team batting average, fifth last in the league). With both bullpens capable of shortening the game, this profiles as a lower-scoring matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers (28-18, 13-8 away) at Los Angeles Angels (16-30, 8-12 home), 4:07 p.m. EST, Angel Stadium, Anaheim
The Dodgers are Moneyline favourites at -150, the Angels at +125. ATS, the Dodgers are -1.5 (+110), the Angels +1.5 (-130). The Over/Under is 9.5 (O +100, U -120).
L.A. Dodgers Moneyline -150
The Dodgers are a top team with superior depth, and frequently cash as favourites in these cross-town games, especially with their strong starting pitching (third in MLB with a team ERA of 3.26). The Dodgers start righthander Roki Sasaki today (1-3, 5.88 ERA, 1.63 WHIP).
