Our Commanders vs Giants betting picks for NFL Week 10 2026 include odds analysis, best bets, key matchups and picks for your same-game parlay
So, with the NFL trade deadline finally passed us, we’re into the home stretch of the regular season, which is wild when you think about it.
There’s a clear Maginot Line now between the contenders and pretenders, with some of the pretenders, like the Eagles and Titans, jettisoning assets at Tuesday’s deadline. It’s on to finishing the season with as little damage as possible, then onto the offseason for those teams.
Tonight the Washington Commanders (2-5-1) are at MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (5-2-1), a pretender taking on a contender. Game time is 8:15 p.m. EST.
Giants’ coach John Harbaugh is now the odds-on favourite at Betway for coach of the year, at +135, and it’s hard to argue with that.
The Giants look to pad their lead on top of the mediocre NFC East tonight, while the Commanders’ hopes are fading fast, if not already extinguished.
J.J. McCarthy makes his first home start at quarterback for the Giants since joining the team in a late-September trade with the Minnesota Vikings. McCarthy has performed well – appearing in four games, making two starts, with 622 passing yards, a 63.2% completion rate, one touchdown and an interception. However, he also took five sacks against the Eagles and managed only 127 passing yards.
Injuries are another worry. McCarthy, with a history of injuries, suffered a hip injury against the Eagles Sunday, briefly leaving the game before returning in the fourth quarter.
The matchup to watch for me is Giants running back Cam Skattebo against the Commanders’ defence. Skattebo missed the Eagles game with a hamstring injury, but he’s good to go tonight, and rain is in the forecast, so he’ll get most of the carries.
With Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy, the Giants had only 51 rushing yards against Philadelphia.
The two teams tied earlier this season – 27-27, on Oct. 11, at Washington.
Here are my Commanders vs Giants picks.
Commanders vs Giants Odds
In NFL betting at Betway, the Giants are -125 moneyline favourites, while the Commanders are listed at +105. New York is favoured by 1.5 points (-110), with Washington at +1.5 (-110). The total is set at 40.5, with the Over at -115 and the Under priced at -100.
Commanders vs Giants Betting Trends
Against the spread this season, the Commanders are 4-4, the Giants 6-2, including 3-1 at home, 3-0 against NFC East opponents.
Washington’s last three games have finished Under the total, with combined scores of 40, 37, and 33 points.
Commanders vs Giants Betting Picks
I’m leaning toward the Under 40.5 as my strongest play, given the cold, rainy weather forecast, the uncertainty over McCarthy’s health, and the short week.
Harbaugh has coached the NFL’s fifth-best defence in yards allowed (301.4), a defence that’s been elite at forcing three-and-outs.
If we are focusing more on rushing, then that means putting some money down on Commanders’ quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels rushed for 103 yards against the Giants in their first meeting. In NFL picks at Betway, Daniels 30+ rushing yards is -190, but 40+ is +100. At that price you’re getting even-money return for Daniels to gain just 10 additional yards. His mobility and the Giants’ pass rush, forcing him to scramble, make that a real possibility. Take 40+.
I’m going to take Giants -1.5 ATS. Washington is missing key personnel, particularly on its defensive line, with DT Daron Payne and DT Javon Kinlaw out. With Skattebo expected back, the Giants will have an opportunity to control possession and exploit that.
Commanders vs Giants Same Game Parlay Picks
I’ll build a parlay around my theme of Giants’ run control, along with the Commanders struggling to generate touchdowns. Skattebo 50+ rushing yards, Malik Nabers 50+ receiving yards and Daniels Under 1.5 passing touchdowns is +250 at Betway.
