San Francisco remains the Super Bowl favourite, but Seattle offers intriguing betting value while Buffalo could make moves before the deadline
Two weeks ago, we looked at how the NFL’s early-season surprises were reshaping Super Bowl futures odds, with the San Francisco 49ers emerging as favourites and the Los Angeles Rams losing ground.
This is the time of year in the NFL schedule when contenders really start contending, and pretenders start to fall off.
With sports betting, the NFL trade deadline is approaching on Nov. 10, another factor has entered the equation: blockbuster trades.
Several contenders made aggressive moves this past week to strengthen their rosters, and the futures betting market has responded. For bettors, the question is whether these acquisitions genuinely improve a team’s championship prospects or whether the resulting odds adjustments have already eliminated much of the value.
In NFL betting at Betway on Oct. 19, the 49ers were +600, the Bills +700, the Chiefs +850, the Ravens +900, the Rams +1000, the Seahawks +1200, the Jaguars +1400, and the Bears +1500.
Today, it’s the 49ers +600, Bills +650, Chiefs +1000, Seahawks +1000, Bears +1100, Rams +1100, Ravens +1200, and Jaguars +1200.
Chicago and Seattle have been the biggest movers, with both teams making significant acquisitions ahead of the NFL trade deadline.
The Bears made the week’s biggest move, trading for All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons from the Tennessee Titans on Thursday (Chicago surrendered two first-round draft picks and a fourth-rounder, with a fifth-rounder coming back to the Bears along with Simmons).
That’s a substantial odds adjustment for a defensive player, reflecting expectations that Simmons can transform Chicago’s defensive front. The Bears were +2200 at Betway on Oct. 5.
The Seahawks also made headlines, acquiring eight-time Pro Bowl offensive guard Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts. Nelson brings elite protection and run-blocking ability to one of the NFC’s strongest contenders and the defending Super Bowl champions.
That acquisition, as well as Seattle’s impressive win last weekend over Kansas City, has helped restore confidence in the Seahawks.
Then there are the 49ers, at the top of the betting food chain. San Francisco strengthened its defensive front, reacquiring defensive tackle DeForest Buckner from Indianapolis. The trade, though, produced little immediate movement in the 49ers’ Super Bowl odds. San Francisco was +900 at Betway on Oct. 5. Injuries remain a concern.
The Bills remain the leading championship contenders at +700 and a good bet to make trades by Nov. 10, with the window on Josh Allen’s prime closing and a need to improve a defence that ranks among the worst in the NFL. The Bills will target the linebacker, cornerback, and safety positions.
The Rams, meanwhile, have recovered from their early-season slide, while the Cincinnati Bengals are now +1400, down from +2100, following their win over Baltimore.
San Francisco is the clear favourite, but the Seahawks are becoming increasingly interesting. Seattle offers a good balance of price and championship potential, especially after addressing their offensive line, a clear weakness.
Keep an eye on what the Bills do over the next 10 days, though.
