Toronto looks to rebound against struggling Vancouver, with the Leafs' potent power play creating three attractive betting opportunities
It’s fascinating, living in Toronto, to watch how quickly things can turn on the NHL’s Maple Leafs at the first sign of a dark cloud.
Just a week ago, the Leafs rolled into Edmonton to face the first-place Oilers and pounded them 7-2, delivering one of their most complete team performances in well over a year.
Then came losses in Calgary and Seattle, and suddenly that impressive win in Edmonton was forgotten.
The narrative all week has centred on goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky.
A graphic on Sportsnet this morning put an exclamation mark on the chatter. According to Clear Sight Analytics, Bobrovsky’s first 10 games as a Leaf, after signing as a big-ticket free agent, have produced four quality starts, one average start, and five bad or blown starts in which he allowed more goals than expected.
The Leafs’ counterargument is that Bobrovsky, a two-time Stanley Cup champion and almost certain first-ballot Hall of Famer when he retires, has historically been a notoriously slow starter.
But that’s life in this market, where the team hasn’t won anything of substance in 60 years, an astonishing drought when you think about it.
Leafs fans have an almost unrequited love affair with their hockey team when things are going well. But at the first sign of trouble, that affection can quickly give way to frustration, anger and outright rage. See: Mitch Marner’s departure.
Betting on the Leafs adds another layer of complexity to an already complicated relationship.
For fans who wager on their favourite team, separating emotional attachment from rational analysis can be particularly challenging. And in a market where every win fuels Stanley Cup dreams and every loss threatens to become a crisis, maintaining wagering discipline is easier said than done.
That brings us to tonight, when the Leafs are in Vancouver to play the Canucks. Puck drop is 7 p.m. EST.
The Leafs now sit sixth in the Atlantic Division, three points behind the first-place Boston Bruins. It’s a division too competitive this season; just a few points separate last place from first, and any extended slump can bury teams.
This is a must-win scenario tonight. The only good news is it’s the Canucks, one of the NHL’s worst teams, at 3-11. Still, no gimme.
In NHL betting at Betway, the Leafs are -180 moneyline favourites, with the Canucks at +150. Toronto is favoured by 1.5 goals on the puck line (+120), while Vancouver is +1.5 (-150). The total is set at 6.5, with the Over at -125 and the Under at +105.
Anthony Stolarz is in net for Toronto tonight, his first start since a stellar game against the powerful Oilers one week ago. Stolarz is 4-1, with a 2.79 GAA and .907% save percentage on the season. The probable starter for Vancouver is Kevin Lankinen (1-7, 6.18 GAA, .812%).
Some betting notes going into the game: Leafs’ rookie Gavin McKenna, on the first line with Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic, had two goals in the Seattle game. Vancouver is 1-5-0 on home ice. Toronto is 7-6-2 overall and 3-3-1 on the road, with a +6 scoring differential.
The Canucks are 1-8-1 in their last ten games, averaging 2.4 goals for and giving up 4.2 per game.
John Tavares and Kirill Marchenko are the big-ticket absences for the Leafs due to injury, but the big news is Chris Tanev returns to the lineup tonight, as does Dakota Joshua, whom the Leafs will fit into the third line. The second line of Nick Paul centring Easton Cowan and William Nylander stays intact.
My best bets for tonight are led by Leafs team total goals, Over 3.5 (-135). Toronto averages 3.68 goals per game, and neither defence has been convincing. And they’re fifth in the NHL in power-play efficiency, at 31.3%. The Canucks rank 30th in the NHL in penalty killing.
The only thing the Canucks have going for them tonight is home ice and Leafs hatred among a segment of their fans, but as we’ve seen in other Canadian NHL cities, the Leafs also have a healthy base of fans to cheer them on whatever rink they’re playing in.
Feels like a 5-3 Leafs win, around there, so I’ll also lean toward the Over 6.5 total goals at -125. Lankinen isn’t exactly Martin Brodeur.
And if I’m thinking it feels like a 5-3 game, around there, then I guess I’m going Leafs -1.5 puckline at that plus money. The matchup supports the bet.
