Tampa Bay's surprise pitching change adds intrigue as Milwaukee's dominant bullpen and ace Jacob Misiorowski take centre stage
So, no, the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers aren’t in the World Series, and people are wondering how much interest there will be. This year is a win for smaller-budget baseball, supporting the argument that you don’t need a Godzilla payroll if you have great management and staff.
I am watching, you have the best two teams in terms of regular-season records. The Tampa Bay Rays topped the American League at 98-64. The Milwaukee Brewers had a massive season, going 103-59, to finish No. 1 in the National League. It’ll be great baseball.
The betting line for tomorrow night’s Game 1 of the World Series has shifted slightly over the past 24 hours, most notably with the total moving from 5.5 to 6.5 runs.
In MLB betting at Betway, the Brewers are -190 moneyline favourites, the Rays are +160, the Brewers are -1.5 (+115), the Rays are +1.5 (-150), and the total is 6.5 (Over is -110, Under is +110).
That has made the Under +110 a more interesting option. That’s my major takeaway.
Several developments stand out other than that. Milwaukee’s moneyline moved from -160 to -190, making the Brewers a much more expensive favourite.
The Brewers run line -1.5 has shortened from +135 to +115, so bettors get a smaller payout for backing Milwaukee to win by multiple runs.
Game 1 is tomorrow night at 8 p.m. EST on Fox at American Family Field in Milwaukee.
The big news for bettors today was the Rays’ decision to change their Game 1 starter. Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA, 109 Ks, and a 1.09 WHIP) starts for Tampa. Martinez has started two games during this year’s playoffs, with six strikeouts, and he hasn’t given up a home run. The Rays elected to give ace Drew Rasmussen some more rest. Martinez, the 36-year-old right-hander, is with his fourth major league team.
Jacob Misiorowski goes for the Brewers, with his 104 mph fastball. According to ESPN, he threw 1,115 pitches at 100 mph or higher this year. That was a record. Misiorowski went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA, 252 Ks (the league lead), and a 0.80 WHIP. He’s had two playoff starts so far, with 11 strikeouts.
Best bets begin and end with Milwaukee moneyline for Game 1, at -190. Beyond the stud starter, the Brewers have an elite bullpen that has posted a 1.33 ERA this postseason (7-1). Bumping back Rasmussen is another reason for the pick. Not the best value, I know. But the likely winner.
That Brewers’ runline at plus money is enticing, but Tampa’s strong bullpen makes a two-run win far from guaranteed.
The Under 6.5 runs at +110 is also enticing, though riskier since Rasmussen isn’t pitching, but the Brewers’ bullpen helps makes this my best bet, and Misiorowski can dominate. I’m taking the Under.
I like Misiorowski Under 15.5 outs recorded at -115. He hasn’t completed five innings in either of his two postseason starts, throwing 88 and 94 pitches in those outings, and I can see why Milwaukee would manage his workload carefully. Plus, again, that bullpen means they don’t have to push him deeper into games.
Milwaukee won two of the three regular-season meetings with Tampa Bay. The Rays have won 24 of Martinez’s 33 starts this season, including the playoffs.
