Our Broncos vs Chiefs betting picks for NFL Week 1 2026 include odds analysis, best bets, key matchups and picks for your same game parlay
A few things that came out of yesterday’s full slate of NFL games, that caught my eye, and will no doubt catch the attention of bettors.
The Chicago Bears under Caleb Williams look terrifying offensively, after their 59-37 blowout win over the Carolina Panthers. Six rushing touchdowns, 552 total yards, 291 rushing yards – sportsbooks may have underestimated how good Chicago’s offence would be, and yesterday’s game could force them to adjust their numbers.
The New York Giants under John Harbaugh might be better than we all thought. Their 28-20 win over the Dallas Cowboys last night was no fluke. Jaxson Dart was excellent – 23-of-29, 230 yards passing, three TDs, no interceptions.
Then I’m looking at the warning shots on the NFC front – they are worried in Green Bay, for example, following Minnesota’s 39-22 comeback win over the Packers. That was after Carson Wentz replaced Kyler Murray at quarterback. Murray left with a concussion. Wentz threw three touchdown passes.
Tonight’s Monday Night Football Game features the Denver Broncos in Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. EST.
The biggest storyline is Patrick Mahomes’ health. The Chiefs’ quarterback is making his first start since tearing his ACL and LCL in his left knee nine months ago.
He didn’t play in the preseason, and the Broncos had 68 sacks last year, leading the NFL. Chiefs left tackle Josh Simmons is out with a back injury, which couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Mahomes’ mobility issues are the biggest storyline bettors will focus on tonight.
Over on the Denver side, quarterback Bo Nix is also returning from an injury, while the team has surrounded him with some new tools at the receiver position, led by Jaylen Waddle, whose speed downfield could open up one-on-one opportunities for the other receivers.
Then there’s the debut of Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, up against the Denver defensive front, since the Chiefs will have more incentive to run the ball with Mahomes’ situation. How Walker factors into first-down plays will be key – if Denver can create second-and-nine and third-and-seven situations, that could tilt the game in their direction.
Broncos vs Chiefs Odds
In NFL betting at Betway, the Chiefs are -130 moneyline favourites, with the Broncos +110. Kansas City is a 2.5-point favourite at -110), while Denver is +2.5 at -110. The total is 43.5 points, with the over at -105 and the under at -115.
The Chiefs, coming off a 6-11 season, are at home at Arrowhead, yet they’re only laying 2.5 points. The market isn’t treating the new Chiefs like the old Chiefs.
Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Trends
Last season, Denver swept Kansas City, and both games went under, so that’s a popular lean.
Denver also proved it could win at Arrowhead with a 20-13 win on Christmas Day. The Broncos went 14-3 last season and won their final four regular-season road games.
The Chiefs went just 5-4 at Arrowhead last season, including losing their final three home games.
Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Picks
I’m going to take the Broncos at +110, since Denver bettors aren’t getting the protection of +3. I like Denver to win outright because of the unknown factor with Mahomes versus paying -110 for only 2.5 points of protection. This is about as competitive a game as you would find on the schedule going into Week 1.
I also don’t know what the Chiefs have in Travis Kelce, to be honest. He’s 36 now, and will likely be a big factor tonight with a quick/intermediate passing game taking more of a priority with Mahomes’ condition. Can Denver make him less of a factor on third down or in the red zone without devoting excessive resources?
Denver’s defence should make it difficult for a Chiefs offence that struggled last year and is starting an undrafted rookie (Khalil Benson) in Simmons’ place. I’ll take the plus money on the Denver moneyline.
The under 43.5 at -115 also has appeal. Both defences ranked among the better units last season. Mahomes will no doubt be carefully managed by Andy Reid and his coaching staff. So like I said, fewer deep shots, minimize the runs, shorter/quicker pass game, reliance on Walker.
Also, with my NFL picks, I’m taking Mahomes under 224.5 passing yards (-115). Kansas City will lean on the run, and get the ball out quickly against the Denver pass rush. There just is no incentive to have Mahomes hurling it all over the field, scrambling about, in his first game back from such a serious knee injury.
Broncos vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks
How’s about Broncos team total over 20.5, Chiefs team total under 22.5, and first quarter under 7.5? The opening quarter stays quiet, the Chiefs don’t blow the lid off anything, and Denver gets enough points to stay in it (+550).
