Toronto's trade deadline strategy could shape its playoff push, while Cease headlines tonight's best bets against St. Louis
The New York Mets got the ball rolling on the MLB trade front, with the Aug. 3 deadline looming, starting off what will likely be a sell-off for them by dealing left-handed reliever A.J. Minter to the Minnesota Twins for two minor leaguers, announced today.
Will the Toronto Blue Jays follow? Will it be a 100% sell-off, especially involving their players on expiring contracts – Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho, Max Scherzer?
Or will they opt against trading those players for middling prospects, and instead buy, taking a run at that last American League wild card spot? The Jays are 5.5 games out of the last wild card spot as of this morning.
Or maybe a bit of both? Deal off the expiring contracts for prospects, but use their financial might to buy? There’s social media chatter this morning around the Jays acquiring shortstop CJ Abrams (.289 batting average, 27 HRs, 82 RBIs, .917 OPS) from the Washington Nationals, with SS Andreas Gimenez, prospect SS Arjun Nimmala, pitcher Ricky Tiedemann and another prospect going the other way.
Most things you see on social media are likely BS, but the hypothetical underscores one point: the Blue Jays are in a position to make significant additions to their roster. “Selling” shouldn’t be part of their vocabulary.
There are 53 games left. That’s a lot of baseball. Local podcasters and radio hosts love chopping up different “sell” modes, but I doubt the Jays brain trust, backed by the deep pockets of Rogers Communications, and a season where they’re still riding the buzz of last year’s World Series run, fourth in the league in home attendance (an average of 40,690), is thinking along those lines.
Bettors putting cash down on Blue Jays’ futures should keep that in mind.
I think the organization is heading down an L.A. Dodgers-like pathway. High payrolls, continue to beef up the prospect pool, by drafting and developing well, which they are doing (see Trey Yesavage). They never sell off. They just re-adjust when it comes to the major league roster.
That’s why I like them tonight, at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, 7:07 p.m. EST at Rogers Centre.
The Jays have their Cy Young Award candidate, Dylan Cease (7-5, 2.46 ERA, 3rd in MLB with 167 strikeouts, and a 1.09 WHIP), on the mound, going against Kyle Leahy for the Cards (7-4, 3.55 ERA, 88 Ks, 1.34 WHIP).
In MLB betting at Betway, the Blue Jays are Moneyline favourites, at -190, with the Cardinals at +160. The Runline is Jays -1.5 (+110), Cardinals +1.5 (-140). The Total is 7.5 (Over -105, Under -115).
Blue Jays Moneyline (-190)
With Cease on the mound, and with the Jays at home (26-30 at Rogers Centre), Toronto is the deserved favourite.
Leahy has had a strong July, though, and allowed two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out nine over six innings in a no-decision versus the Reds on Sunday.
The Cardinals (54-55), similar to the Blue Jays, have had a doddering season. They sit 20th in MLB in team batting, sitting at .239.
Cease 7+ Strikeouts (-275)
The most straightforward prop of the night. If you’re looking for plus money, you can take a shot at 9+ strikeouts, at +160. The Cardinals have struck out a lot against power right-handers all season.
Kazuma Okamoto or George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+120)
I like this market a lot, watching Springer heat up at the plate of late, and Okamoto launch bombs during the recent road trip. Okamoto has 24 on the season now.
Under 7.5 Runs (-115)
Cease has been dominant lately, while Leahy is coming off a quality start. Neither team has been able to generate much offence this season.
If Leahy can keep the Jays in check for four or five innings, this could play out as a low-scoring game.
