McGregor's power makes him dangerous early, but Holloway's cardio, activity and experience could prove decisive if the fight reaches later rounds
Tonight, at UFC 329, bettors will know for sure if the return of Conor McGregor after a five-year layoff, through all rumoured comebacks and media chatter, is the real deal, or a one-off, massive payday.
McGregor and Max Holloway headline UFC 329 in Las Vegas in a welterweight bout, with the main card kicking off at 9 p.m. EST tonight.
“I forecast Holloway’s retirement after Saturday night,” said McGregor.
That’s the promotional, WWE-style theatrics at play. Holloway, 34, isn’t going anywhere. He has remained one of the UFC’s most consistently elite fighters while McGregor spent the past five years away from the Octagon following his first-round TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in July 2021, when he suffered a broken left leg.
Holloway has fought eight times during McGregor’s five-year absence, facing the sport’s elite with losses to Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria, and wins over Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier. Now, Holloway is moving up in weight for the second time in two years—a total jump of 25 pounds from featherweight to welterweight—and bettors are left to weigh how that could affect his speed, power and durability.
But the bigger questions revolve around McGregor for tonight’s fight.
For bettors, this fight may come down to one question: Can McGregor finish Holloway early? If not, the advantage likely shifts to Holloway.
Can he overcome a five-year layoff at 37 years old after suffering a serious leg injury? Bettors must decide whether McGregor’s explosiveness is enough to end the fight early because, if it extends beyond the opening round, questions about his timing, rust and cardio become much more significant.
In UFC betting at Betway this morning, McGregor is the underdog at +175, Holloway at -225.
Other fights on the main card for UFC 329:
Benoit Saint Denis (-138) versus Paddy Pimblett (+110) in a lightweight bout
Cory Sandhagen (-150) versus Mario Bautista (+120) in a bantamweight fight
Brandon Royval (+175) versus Lone’er Kavanagh (-225) in a flyweight bout
King Green (-110) versus Terrance McKinney (-110) in a lightweight fight.
Personally, the way to go on the betting side is plan for those two potential scenarios.
My brain backs Holloway. But McGregor looks like he’s in great shape.
I am going to put some money down on McGregor’s explosiveness, even at 37 years of age. McGregor to win by TKO/KO Via Punches is +300 at Betway. Total Rounds Under 1.5 is +140, Under 2.5 is -138.
Under Method of Victory, McGregor KO, TKO or DQ is +250.
If the fight extends beyond the opening round, I’m leaning toward Holloway. He has a significant cardio advantage and has repeatedly shown he gets stronger as fights wear on. This matchup should look very different from his unanimous-decision loss to Charles Oliveira in March, when Oliveira repeatedly took him to the mat, neutralized his striking and gradually wore him down.
UFC leads the way in spectacle, compared to other pro sports, and tonight is going to rank Top 3 for 2026, when we look back.
