Our betting expert Alan Alger gets his magnifying glass out to find the winner of the big race at Aintree...
Shoestring, Taggart, Spender, Bergerac, Morse. What does that say to you about finding the winner of the Grand National?
You have to become a (regional) detective to discover the winner of the race.
So grab your best deerstalker hat, pipe, magnifying glass and notebook and join me on a journey through 40 runners…
They say ‘respect your elders’ but the first thing to do is to eliminate all of the suspects that are over the hill.
Only one horse older than 11 has won the race in the last 20 years – the incredible Amberleigh House – so it’s best to ignore those approaching their teenage years – which in horse terms is nearly retirement age.
That means we need to put a line through 12-year-old Raz De Maree ({ODDS:149285401:33/1}).
If it’s hard to win a National at 12, it’s almost impossible to do it before a horse reaches its eighth year.
The last 7-year-old to win was Bogskar in 1940.
Let’s get rid of young bucks Shantou Flyer ({ODDS:149285362:50/1}), Le Mercurey ({ODDS:149285379:50/1}) and Double Shuffle ({ODDS:149285388:40/1}).
Logically, travelling over four miles for two laps of Aintree is easier when carrying as little weight as possible.
And that’s borne out by the stats. Only three horses in the last 30 years have carried more than 11stone 4lb to victory, so those carrying more than that can be ruled out.
Say goodbye to The Last Samuri ({ODDS:149285358:14/1}), More Of That ({ODDS:149285360:12/1}), Perfect Candidate ({ODDS:149285364:40/1}) and Saphir Du Rheu ({ODDS:149285366:20/1}).
We still have 32 horses left, so there’s plenty of work still to do.
The last five winners of the race have won at 25/1 or bigger and, let’s face it, we want to aim for a big win rather than backing a short priced horse in such a lottery of a race.
Let’s dismiss all the horses clearly under 20/1.
Out go Definitly Red ({ODDS:149285386:11/1}), Vieux Lion Rouge ({ODDS:149285385:11/1}), Blaklion ({ODDS:149285375:14/1}), Cause Of Causes ({ODDS:149285383:14/1}), Pleasant Company ({ODDS:149285390:14/1}) and One For Arthur ({ODDS:149285391:16/1}).
Only two British bred horses have won the National in the last 16 years, let’s ignore those born on these shores.
Swerve Drop Out Joe ({ODDS:149285377:50/1}), The Young Master ({ODDS:149285381:20/1}), Cocktails At Dawn ({ODDS:149285404:66/1}) and Good To Know ({ODDS:149285407:66/1}).
And with all due respect to the great amateur jockeys that line up on Saturday, we should put a line through them on the basis of the record of their peers in this contest.
It’s been 26 years since an amateur rode to victory, so let’s eliminate Wonderful Charm ({ODDS:149285372:33/1}).
The optimum time for a horse to get ready for the race is between 20 and 50 days so we’re going to ignore all of those that aren’t fresh from a recent run or ran recently and may have lost their edge.
Regal Encore ({ODDS:149285384:50/1}), Ballynagour ({ODDS:149285392:66/1}), Highland Lodge ({ODDS:149285394:22/1}), Bishops Road ({ODDS:149285395:50/1}), Stellar Notion ({ODDS:149285402:50/1}) and Rogue Angel ({ODDS:149285403:20/1}) are all outside of that bracket, so out of our plans they go.
It’s also best to ignore horses that have run over five times in the season of their National attempt.
Roi Des Francs ({ODDS:149285368:50/1}), Thunder And Roses ({ODDS:149285405:33/1}) and Gas Line Boy ({ODDS:149285406:66/1}) have all been seen far too much on the racecourse this year to warrant consideration.
So we’re down to 12, and have to start being ruthless to find the right candidates.
Only two horses aged 8 have won the race since the 1993 void race fiasco, and that’s a poor enough record to warrant some attention and rule out Wounded Warrior ({ODDS:149285370:50/1}), Vicente ({ODDS:149285398:20/1}) and La Vaticane ({ODDS:149285410:125/1}).
British-based trainers have won eight of the last ten Grand Nationals so let’s eliminate Irish runners Ucello Conti ({ODDS:149285387:18/1}), Lord Windermere ({ODDS:149285396:50/1}) and Measureofmydreams ({ODDS:149285400:40/1}).
With six left we can look for some course form – or at least a glimmer of ability to jump these big fences. Saint Are ({ODDS:149285397:33/1}) fell at Aintree in December, so we’ll lose him.
That leaves us with five horses at very nice prices, and with our Betway 6 places ¼ odds on the race it would be crazy not to back a handful of runners.
The ones to watch, then, for the super sleuths are TENOR NIVERNAIS ({ODDS:149285373:50/1}), HOUBLON DES OBEAUX ({ODDS:149285389:40/1}), O’FAOLAINS BOY ({ODDS:149285393:40/1}), JUST A PAR ({ODDS:149285399:40/1}) and DOCTOR HARPER ({ODDS:149285411:50/1}).
