The horse racing broadcaster previews the best of the racing around the UK on Saturday, including two bets at Newmarket.
An unusual Cambridgeshire in terms of field size (just 24) and unseasonally fast ground changes the complexion of one of the traditional big-field end-of-season handicaps.
With the stalls positioned in the centre, it is further to each rail than would be the case when they stretch right across the Rowley Mile. It will be interesting to see whether they split into two groups or stay clustered together up the centre.
REAL GAIN / (15:40 Newmarket) has been very lightly raced since catching the eye in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood in 2024. Dropped out that day—as he can be keen—he faced a near-impossible task from that position and did well to even come home in 9th place. Those with long memories will recall he was ante-post favourite for last year’s race before being scratched as the yard were “just not happy with him.” He did not reappear until Goodwood this year, where he finished a very creditable third, splitting Ebt’s Guard and Greek Order, who reoppose on Saturday.
It is entirely plausible—given it had clearly been a target last season—that the yard have taken the decision to preserve his mark for a tilt this time around. He won over the course and distance at this meeting two years ago. Greek Order also has history in the race, having been the Cambridgeshire plunge that very year when only failing by ½ length to catch Astro King, having met trouble trying to find a path through the field. He has been to America and back since then, but placings at Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup and at Sandown show he is still competitive. He is less committed to one side if they do split from his mid draw than Real Gain is from stall 22.
I have two very contrasting opinions about the two Group 1 races. The Cheveley Park looks a really good renewal, and the sprinting fillies are a decent bunch. The Lowther form of Royal Fixation and Arabian Queen looks solid, while I’ve always been a fan of Fitzella, who can certainly make the frame at a decent price. Add in True Love, who was clearly below par in the Phoenix, and it looks a quality race — but one where it’s hard to find a bet at the prices.
By contrast, the Middle Park looks shallow, and it’s hard to dispute that the Morny form of WISE APPROACH / (15:00 Newmarket) is anything other than a standout. Coppull was well held that day but could still rate as one of the main threats, while Havana Hurricane could pick up the pieces and make the frame at a decent price. This time, however, it’s hard to look beyond the obvious, and this should be another big race victory on the Rowley Mile for the Buick and Appleby combo. Their record in Group 1s together at the track is 9/27 (A/E 1.42), and they remain the combination to follow in their own backyard—with the 42% overperformance against expected wins based on exchange SPs also showing they are not overbet.
I’m not yet a fully paid-up member of the Bow Echo fan club, as I felt at Haydock that Publish shaped like the better horse of the pair for next season. But it’s hard to find one to beat him in the Royal Lodge. Bow Echo very much looks a horse for the here and now—quite compact for a son of Night of Thunder—but my reservations make it impossible to take such a short price on Saturday. One thing in his favour is the form of his yard, with 4 of George Boughey’s last 5 runners being successful (at the time of writing on Friday morning).
More appealing are a couple of horses in the two Haydock handicaps that form part of the ITV coverage: LETHAL NYMPH / (14:05 Haydock) and LA TRINIDAD / (15:15 Haydock).
Lethal Nymph gained his first success for Paul Midgley since joining from Clive Cox at the end of 2023 at Doncaster last time. Raised just 2lb to a mark of 80, he has plenty of form off higher marks for both handlers and should still be competitive here—especially if the ground remains on the soft side.
La Trinidad is another who is well handicapped on past form, and even though he is 8 years old, there looked to be life in the old legs when he ran 5th at Ascot. Roger Fell is another trainer whose yard is in great heart (4/22 in September, A/E 2.22), with three of the last six having won.
Away from the main action, my tracker has thrown up WEN MOON / (14:50 Ripon), who caught my eye when calling at Haydock the other day. He met a little bit of trouble when beginning his run and did not get a hard time once held. It’s been a long time since he tasted success, but his mark has been in freefall on ground that has been fast enough.
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